Four scenarios for media, news, and entertainment

Andy Oram writes:  "A lot of people are asking what's happening to media and entertainment--especially people whose jobs hang on the answer. These industries are changing fast under the hammer blows of Internet marketing and sales, blogs and podcasts, and the unstoppable flow of the larger economy. I see four possible directions the field could turn.  ¶  Stagnation.  In this scenario, nothing much new h appens and current trends continue. ... ¶  Rallying.  In this scenario, the dominant players -- major studios and publishers -- find ways to regain some of their former success, or are replaced by upstarts in the same industries. ... ¶  Amateurization.  In this scenario, bloggers, podcasters, and other indie producers working on a shoestring gain more and more of the audience. ...  ¶  Revitalization.  In this scenario, new media grow up suited to the current age, just as radio, film, and television grew in the twentieth century. ..."  Link:  O'Reilly Digital Media.