Technology360

Troubling ’07 Forecast for the Old-Line Media but Not for the Online

Stuart Elliott writes:

... Most forecasters are predicting growth in ad spending in the United States next year of 2 to 5 percent over 2006. That would represent a decline from the rate of growth in ad spending this year compared with 2005, which is expected to finish in the range of 3 to 6 percent. But it is not bad considering that 2007 will be missing two major events that help administer a hypodermic to ad budgets in even-numbered years: Olympics and national elections. ...

... the Newspaper Association of America is predicting that spending for ads on the Web sites of newspapers will increase a robust 22 percent next year from 2006. But ad spending in the print editions of those newspapers in 2007 will be flat, the association is forecasting, pulled down by a decline in classified advertising and no growth in demand from national advertisers. ...

Link: New York Times.

As online viewing booms, the amateurs give way to big media

There's not a lot written about media trends to buck up those of us involved in professional media production efforts.  Indeed, I think we're going to have to share that stage from here on.  But Scott Kirsner is an exception and makes an interesting case for professional efforts:

... Since the video publishing revolution began last year, much of the content that has been published and viewed on the Internet has been produced by amateurs: Chinese teens lip-syncing to the Backstreet Boys, motivational speaker Judson Laipply dancing to a medley of pop songs, an angry senior citizen scolding a fellow passenger on a Hong Kong bus, skateboard tricks gone awry, and kitties doing adorable things -- like prancing across a piano keyboard.  ¶  But as movie studios, advertisers and television networks make more of their content available online, viewers' habits may be starting to shift. If Web video was dominated by citizens with camcorders in 2005 and 2006, the pendulum in the coming year will likely swing toward professional content producers and big media companies. ...

Link:  San Jose Mercury News.

In a post called, Is Web Video Shifting to Professional? (which called my attention to Kirsner's article in the first place -- thanks),  Terry Heaton writes:

... But I think this misses the mark in three areas. One is that Kirsner’s talking about moving conventional television and films to the web — albeit in an unbundled form — without evidence that this is sustainable with the weakened Media 1.0 foundation that inevitably results. ...

... Secondly, I think Kirsner assumes that mass marketing will always be the way media makes its money, and I don’t agree with that. Regardless of how clever one can be in assembling the mass, it will be rejected by those who are now tapping videos online — the people formerly known as the audience. ...

... The third problem I have with this is the assumption that every day people create these amateur videos for mass consumption in the first place. ...

Link:  Terry Heaton's PoMo Blog. 

NPR's Talk of the Nation featured Kirsner discussing this.  Worth a listen.   Link:  NPR.  --Dennis

Old Media's Options: Co-opt New Media, Take Its Lead--Or Both

Commenting on a post with this title by Jimmy Guterman at paidContent.org, Jake Shapiro writes:

... Now social media is emerging as a “third zone” - a new space that doesn’t conform to the commercial/noncommercial dichotomy.  ¶  In theory public media should have significant advantages in integrating with and supporting social media. Social media in many ways is the essence of a “public” media, and as a democratic expressive and cultural movement it aligns with the mission of public broadcasting.  ¶  But the reality is that commercial media is beating us (I keep using we/us but I feel like more of a hybrid between the public and social spaces)to the punch and — as this PaidContent post says — is well on the way to “co-opting New Media”. It shouldn’t come as a surprise - commercial mass media have the motive and the means to start harnessing social media. It’s not all a bad thing, but there are real dangers in how it might evolve. ...

Link:  Jake Shapiro.

Boyle Heights Public Television

Public broadcasting web sites often get the rap of being mostly glorified program guides.  But because the web's inherent low time spent per page view, it takes a ton of page views to generate the reach and frequency necessary for an effective promotional message compared to the eight hours average weekly time spent listening per listener to public radio stations or less than two hours time spent viewing (and that's household viewing) for public television stations.  We just need to think of the audience flowing differently -- from station to web, not so much vice versa.

That's not to say that the web can't be an effective medium on its own.  Last week I saw an excellent example of that -- a profile of the Boyle Heights neighborhood of Los Angeles at public television station KCET's web site.  There, Jackie Kain's staff has put together a terrific set of Flash video and audio portraits of that community.  Be sure to check out the panorama.  Boyle Heights has its own public television station.  Very nice!  Link:  KCET.  --Dennis

The Digital Horizon

In spite of its geographically constrained name, the Iowa DTV Symposium is a very good national meeting, sponsored by Iowa Public Television, that happens each fall in Des Moines.  This year, IPTV asked Todd Mundt, himself a very savvy "newmediaite," to interview several of the speakers.  They've just posted seven of these (about a half hour each, Real and downloadable M4V formats) online.  The interviews feature yours truly; Michael Geoghegan, author of Podcasting Solutions: The  Complete Guide to Podcasting; Michael Bugeja, director of the Greenlee School of Journalism and Communication at Iowa State University; Maryann Baldwin, director, Magid Media Futures; James Pence, marketing director, Teacher's Domain, WGBH; Sara Linner, executive producer of new media, Nebraska public television; and change consultant Rob Paterson.  Link:  Iowa PTV.

The PowerPoint for my session at this meeting, "Opening the Gate: Expanding Local Service Through Online Content Partnerships," is now posted to the essays and presentations section of this weblog (left).   --Dennis