« July 2007 | Main | September 2007 »

Friday, 31 August 2007

Vint Cerf: Expect the Internet to radically change television

Few people have more Internet credibility than Vint Cerf, one of its inventors.  Daniel Langendorf writes:

... Cerf...spoke to television executives at the MediaGuardian Edinburgh International Television Festival this past weekend and told them how the Internet’s influence was radically altering their businesses and how it was imperative for them to view this golden opportunity to be exploited instead of a threat to their survival (The Guardian report). ...

And quotes him as saying:

“In Japan you can already download an hour’s worthy of video in 16 seconds. And we’re starting to see ways of mixing information together … imagine if you could pause a television program and use your mouse to click on different items on the screen and find out more about them.”

Link:  last100.  --Dennis

Teen Radio to Return

Public radio friends should note the "Youth News" item below.  Playing "the radio fortune teller," Bridge Ratings president Dave Van Dyke writes:

... One of biggest - and quietest - radio industry issues to come out of the last ten years has been the theory that one key reason radio is experiencing such attrition from teens and young adults is the perfect storm that was created as technology eclipsed radio's lack of compelling youth radio content. The logic goes that if radio had been a bit more aggressive with radio programming geared to 13-24 year olds over the last ten years, it is possible that radio time-spent-listening among this group would not have fallen so sharply. ...

... I pointed them to a Bridge Ratings' study we published earlier this year that glancingly mentioned some new youth radio formats that had tested extremely well. Not really a mystery since the radio formats were put together and researched with the help of a pretty smart group of average 13-21 year olds.  ¶  Formats of particular interest to these media buyers had working titles of "Youth News" and "Current Blend".  ¶  "Youth News" is fairly easy to figure out - only you wouldn't believe how good it sounded in testing. That's because this new youth information format was written and delivered by no one older than 24 and it had music throughout.  ¶  "Current Blend" is a bit more difficult to decipher. However, I can tell you that it's a music-focused radio format that is not currently heard anywhere on the planet on traditional, satellite or Internet radio! ...

Link:  Navigate the Future.  Encouraging to those who may have written off everyone under 30 to iPods.  Although not aimed at teens to my knowledge, there are a couple of projects in the public radio community aimed at younger audiences.  One such is NPR's Bryant Park Project.  Disclosure: I'm on NPR's board of directors.  --Dennis

Thursday, 30 August 2007

P2P-2-ISP Peace Pipe Could Ease Bandwidth Crunch

Michael Calore writes:

... Faced with a surge in network usage, internet service providers are grumbling about rising traffic levels. The increase is driven so far mostly by internet video from YouTube and similar services, which don't actually employ P2P technologies.  ¶  But ISPs say the looming growth of true peer-to-peer applications threatens to overwhelm them. Some ISPs have even started sniffing out P2P traffic on their networks and curbing it, either slowing file sharing to a trickle or bringing it to a halt.  ¶  Responding to this adversarial relationship, some P2P companies are adopting a posture of engagement with ISPs, and have formed a new industry working group to help broker relationships that, they say, will enable ISPs to better manage and distribute traffic loads on their networks.  ¶  The P4P working group consists of content-distribution-technology providers like BitTorrent, Pando Networks, LimeWire and VeriSign's Kontiki, as well as broadband companies like Verizon and AT&T, and hardware makers like Cisco Systems. There are close to a dozen members so far. The P4P operates under the guidance of the Distributed Computing Industry Association, a group that wants to foster legal peer-to-peer content distribution. ...

Link:  Wired.  It appears to me that Clearwire, which is my WISP, is throttling P2P traffic.  I've not noticed it with Open Media Network, which is powered by Kontiki, but the other day I installed a Torrent client to get a (legitimate) file that was only available that way and it downloaded exceedingly slow.  One sip of water does not a well make, but I think there's a good chance that's what's going on.  Also, while it used to let me connect to the university's VPN so I could sync my Outlook, that's no longer the case.  So it's sniffing out what I'm doing.  Maybe Dick Cheney is a shareholder.  --Dennis

Welcome "back," Sen. Tim Johnson

This week I've watched excerpts of two speeches from U.S. senators, each of whom I have met briefly Timjohnson_3 and whose careers I've followed over the years.  One is noted for speaking in a stentorian orational style that is off-putting to some people (I'm one) because it seems affected.  The other is noted for having a quiet, deliberate style of speaking, when he speaks at all.  The first was one of my own senators, Larry Craig of Idaho, explaining at an outdoor podium in Boise that he did nothing wrong and wasn't gay after pleading guilty to soliciting sex in a Minneapolis airport restroom (YouTube clip).  The second was Sen. Tim Johnson, who had emergency surgery in December after suffering a stroke-like episode from malformed blood vessels in his brain and nearly tipping the balance of power in the Senate.  Johnson, who will be returning to his Senate office after Labor Day, gave an interview to Bob Woodruff (himself recovered from severe brain injury) on ABC's "Nightline" (YouTube clips of him this week and in better times).

Johnson and I are the same age and went to high school in nearby towns in South Dakota.  He played basketball for Vermillion High School (my ex- was a classmate) and unless my own brain is playing tricks on me, I can still remember his unusually bright red face running up and down the court in a game against Beresford circa 1964.  We are both graduates of Doc Farber's Government Department at the University of South Dakota (Tom Brokaw is another), though he was already in law school by the time I enrolled as a freshman after Air Force service.  So for these small personal connections, it was wonderful, not to mention emotional, to see him coming back from what could have been for him and his family the ultimate disaster.  Welcome back, Tim!  --Dennis

Wednesday, 29 August 2007

Creative Destruction: An Exploratory Look at News on the Internet

Little did I realize reading Joseph Schumpeter as a political theory major in college that his classic "creative destruction" coinage would be applied some 35 years later to news on the Internet.  Thomas E. Patterson has prepared a report with this title from the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard.  It was brought to my attention by John Bracken, who has written two posts citing data from the report (on PBS.org and on NPR.org).  Patterson writes:

... This report examines trends in Internet-based news traffic for the purpose of peering into the future of news in America.  In light of the continuing migration of people to online news and the evolving nature of Web technology, our assessments are necessarily preliminary and speculative.  Precise judgments are also made difficult by the range of Internet-based news outlets.  Thousands of siges offer news and news-related content.  Nevertheless, there are emerging patterns.  Like the cable and broadcast revolutions, the Internet revolution is redistributing the news audience in ways beneficial to some news outlets and harmful to others. ...

Link:  Kennedy School of Government [pdf].  NB: The comparative graph is from usage of each site by people who have elected to have the Alexa Toolbar installed in their browsers, so isn't necessarily representative of all users.  --Dennis

Big Love

Let's face it, I'm unfaithful -- to my technology, that is.  I have two cell phones and normally whenever my contract is up I'll go out and buy the latest one. 

My work cell phone is an Audiovox PPC-6700 from Sprint.  This is a Swiss army knife of a phone -- or to be more accurate, it's a Microsoft Mobile PDA that lets you make phone calls and take pictures.  It has a great web browser, its synchronization with Outlook is terrific, and as an email machine it's decent keyboard makes it above average.  When I'm traveling, I use it as a radio to listen to the two radio services that I manage back home.  Sprint's great EV-DO Rev. 3 network makes that a pleasure.  The camera is pretty lame and doesn't really work with scanR, which I use as a substitute fax machine and to make documents from various presentation slides I see -- so I have to carry a small real camera for that.  Most everything is a two-handed operation requiring that darn little stylus to do stuff.  They're easy to uses and Sprint stores don't stock them so you're forced to order replacements online.  Like me, it could stand to lose some bulk.

My personal phone is a T-Mobile BlackBerry 8700g, by far the best-designed phone-and-email-handheld I've ever used -- and that's a lot of them.  What I mean is, for telephone and email functionality, it's terrific.  But it doesn't have a camera, it can't play media, it runs on the not-so-speedy EDGE network, and its web browser is only adequate.  Except for the Pearl, no one has ever accused a BlackBerry of being good-looking.  I've had five email accounts, including my work account, merrily pushing mail to me since I got it about 16 months ago, but only this week did I get my IT guy to make it work with the Exchange server at the university where I work.  He wishes he'd never seen it.  But this, too, works great, and now all my Outlook stuff is syncing with it.  It's sort of like one of those second weddings that some couples do as a recommitment.

But that renewed relationship with my BlackBerry comes at a time when I'm thinking, wow, I've only got eight months to go on this contract.  What else is out there?  There is the iPhone, of course, but my reading and talking to a few users has led me to believe that it's fabulous industrial design but its only fair in the functionality department.  Beautiful, but not real bright.  I need bright.

The phone that threatens my BlackBerry fidelity the most is the Nokia N95, which just came out with a U.S. version that solves most of the minuses noted about the original European version.  No U.S. carrier is offering it, so you currently have to buy it unlocked and pay full price.  The new one has shed her shutter skirt to make room for a larger battery.  She has more memory and operates on the AT&T 3G network, so she's much speedier than the iPhone operating on the old slow network.  She has a 5-megapixel camera -- so you don't have to carry a "real" one -- and she seems to do everything as well as both my current phones do.  Oh, and she has VOIP software, WiFi and a built-in GPS.

Om Malik has a review of the U.S. version at GigaOMSymbian-guru.com has pictures.  More info at PC World and PC Magazine.  Be still, my heart.   --Dennis

Transition to Media Systems Engineering

It's a rare broadcast engineer who becomes a GM, and if the GM didn't come up by that route, theSixsigma_2 engineering department is pretty mysterious.  Still, most CEOs are aware of the sea change in broadcasting technology toward information technology.  In an interesting unsigned article in Broadcast Engineering, the author states that "neither broadcast engineering nor IT are absorbing the other; in reality a new engineering discipline is being born."

Still, the changes underway have a profound impact on the capabilities and capitalization requirements of an organization.  The author discusses how using the Capability Maturity Model and Six Sigma can help broadcasting management understand and manage this development.  The article ends with a half dozen links to resources on these two models.

Link:  Broadcast Engineering.  Thanks to Ralph Hogan for the tip.  --Dennis

Tuesday, 28 August 2007

Television 2.0: Reconceptualizing TV as an Engagement Medium

"Mediaeater," whose real identity I don't know but whose bookmarks on del.icio.us I find invaluable (if I ever get hit by a truck, del.icio.us/mediaeater is a pretty good substitute for this blog, though more like drinking out of a firehose than this effort), recently added the new master's thesis of Ivan D. Askwith with this title.  Askwith's thesis supervisor is Henry Jenkins, Professor of Comparative Media Studies at MIT, blogger at Confessions of an Aca/Fan, and author of Convergence Culture: Where Old and New Media Collide, among other books -- and whose bona fides prompted me to read the first few pages of this quite interesting 174-pp work.

Askwith's abstract:

Television is in a period of dramatic change. As the mass audience continues to fragment into ever-smaller niche audiences and communities of interest, and new technologies shift control over the television viewing experience from network programmers into the hands of media consumers, television’s traditional business models prove themselves increasingly untenable. In an attempt to preserve these models, television executives are attempting to shed television’s long-standing reputation as a passive medium, which emphasized the viewer’s role as a consumer of television content, and which critics often decried as vacuous and mindless.  ¶   The current discourse suggests that television’s future now relies on the industry’s success recasting it as an active medium, capable of capturing and holding the audience’s attention, and effective at generating emotional investment. The single most important concept in this new industrial discourse is that of audience “engagement”, a term that has generated a tremendous amount of debate and disagreement, with television and advertising executives alike struggling to understand what engagement is, how it works, and what its practical consequences will be.  ¶  This thesis argues that television’s future as an engagement medium relies not on inventing new methodologies that define engagement in terms of quantifiable audience behaviors and attitudes, but instead in a new conceptual model of television, better suited to a multiplatform media environment and the emerging attention and experience economies, which focuses on the development of television programs that extend beyond the television set. Such a model must understand television not as a method for aggregrating audiences that can be sold to advertisers, but as a medium that draws upon media platforms, content, products, activities and social spaces to provide audiences with a range of opportunities to engage with television content. Accordingly, this thesis offers a framework for thinking about viewer engagement as the range of opportunities and activities that become possible when drawing upon an expanded, multi-platform conception of the modern television text. Applying this framework to the innovative and experimental textual extensions developed around ABC’s Lost, the thesis indicates both the challenges and opportunities that emerge as television becomes an engagement medium.  [emphasis added]

Link:  Comparative Media Studies, MIT [pdf].  --Dennis

In-Stat: U.S. households with little or no interest in HDTV on the rise

Broadcast Engineering reports:

The percentage of U.S. households that said they were interested in HDTVs fell this year compared to those who expressed an interest last year, and the number or those reporting to have little or no interest has grown, according to a series of studies from market research firm In-Stat.  ¶  At the same time, worldwide interest in HDTV among consumers is rising, with particularly strong interest in France and South Korea, the research firm said. The reports also showed that consumers are choosing LCD TVs over their plasma display equivalents in good number, which will be responsible for LCD televisions claiming 75 percent of the market by 2011 and the plasma market share dwindling to below 15 percent. ...

--Dennis

Monday, 27 August 2007

Youth Radio: The Power of Collegial Pedagogy

Henry Jenkins has a pair of interesting, if typically long, posts on Youth Radio.  Link:  Confessions of an Aca/Fan, Part One, Part Two.  --Dennis

TV explodes: The chain reaction hits critical mass

Jeff Jarvis writes:

Internet usage is now approaching TV usage — in the US, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Japan — according to an IBM study to which Om Malik points us. Note also that TV networks’ share of online TV viewing is only about 33 percent, below YouTube and barely ahead of Google and social networks in the U.S. — and the alternatives are only beginning (in the life of internet video, it’s only 1954). ...

Link:  Buzz Machine.  Be sure to read Malik's comments in addition to Jarvis'.  --Dennis

DVR viewership eating away at DVD watching

Eric Bangeman writes:

... Another group may be moving the DVR further up on its list of disliked technologies in the wake of Ofcom's fourth annual report on the state of the UK's communications market. In the survey, 31 percent of DVR owners said that they are watching fewer DVDs.  ¶  There are a couple of factors working in favor of the drop in DVD viewership. First, some DVR owners are using the devices to build up their movie libraries. Did you miss it in the theaters and forget to rent it when the DVD was released? No problem—wait until it's on HBO and record it to watch at your leisure.  ¶  DVRs also give owners more TV options. Why run down to the local video store if you have several hours of your favorite TV shows awaiting your viewing pleasure? Watching all of that recorded TV eats away at the time available for watching DVDs. ...

Link:  Ars Technica.  --Dennis

WOXY.com carried on WVXU-HD2

Former over-the-air commercial broadcaster WOXY, Oxford, Ohio, broadcasting only over the web as woxy.com for the past few years, returns to the air on the HD-2 channel of public radio station WVXU, Cincinnati.  It has an alternative rock format.  This may be the first such combination of non-commercial and commercial radio on one HD Radio station.  See Zachary Breedlove's, Music: (Not) Only in It for the Money.  Link:  CityBeat.  Thanks to Jack Dominic of WCET.  --Dennis

Sunday, 26 August 2007

Broken links fixed

I noticed tonight that a number of links in the Files section to the left pointed to files in Web sites that I no longer maintain.  These files have been moved to TypePad and the links are now fixed.  Sorry for any inconvenience.  --Dennis

A Longer Look at the Long Tail

In June, Bear Stearns issued a very useful report with this title authored by research analysts Spencer Wang, Shub Mukherjee and Stefan Anninger.  It displays lots of good data and, though it focuses on video content, it has a great deal of validity for audio content as well.  The authors write:

... Value Will Reside in the Middle of the Supply Chain.  If our thesis is correct, one major problem with infiinite choice is the potential for overwhelming confusion.  Said another way, how do consumers navigate a world of unlimited choice and find what they are looking for?  ¶  We think this conundrum (the "Paradox of Choice") will increase the value of "middlemen," or packagers of content that can appropriately filter out the noise and connect users with the content that appeals to their interests.  This can be done through strong brands, editorial discretion, technology, and harnessing user recommendations. ...

Link:  Bear Stearns.  Recommended, along with a complementary one from IBM to which I linked a week ago.  --Dennis

Details on the Noncommercial Filing Window

For only a week this October, the FCC is opening up its first window for filing new noncommercial FM stations in several year, leading to a flurry of activity for many licensees (including my own organization) looking to protect FM translator frequencies or provide new services.  Davis Wright Tremaine has a good overview.  Link:  Broadcast Law Blog

Also see More Information on October Filing Window for New Noncommerical FM Radio Stations.  Link:  Broadcast Law Blog.  --Dennis

IBM to administer DTV converter program ...

... for the NTIA.  Link:  Broadcast Engineering.  --Dennis

HD Radio: Why Marketing Matters

Bridge Ratings president Dave Van Dyke has some advice for U.S. broadcasters in how to market HD Radio based on the UK experience with digital radio.  Link:  Navigate the Future.  --Dennis

Mark Cuban: The Internet is Dead and Boring

Mark Cuban has been taking on the Internet of late and this week weighed in again.  He writes:

... Every new technological, mechanical or intellectual breakthrough has its day, days, months and years. But they don't rule forever. That's the reality.  ¶  Every generation has its defining breakthrough. Cars, TV, Radio, Planes,highways, the wheel, the printing press, the list goes on forever. I'm sure in each generation to whom the invention was a breakthrough it may have been heretical to consider those inventions "dead and boring". The reality is that at some point they stop changing. They stop evolving. They become utilities or utilitarian and are taken for granted.   ¶  Some of you may not want to admit it, but that's exactly what the net has become. A utility. It has stopped evolving. Your Internet experience today is not much different than it was 5 years ago. ...

Link:  Blog Maverick

Update 27 August 2007:
In a follow-up post today, Cuban says The Internet Is Still Dead and Boring.  Link:  Blog Maverick.

Update 29 August 2007:
Be sure also to read broadband expert Om Malik's surprisingly supportive response, Cuban's Theory & The Internet Infrastructure Questions.  Link:  GigaOm.  --Dennis

Wednesday, 22 August 2007

Goodbye to Newspapers?

One of my longest-running subscriptions, 35+ years, is to the New York Review of Books.  In the August 16th issue is an essay by long-time New York Times columnist Russell Baker with this title on the fate of newspapers in the wake of emerging media platforms and ownership influences by the likes of Rupert Murdoch.  Baker writes:

... Journalism was being whittled away by a Wall Street theory that profits can be maximized by minimizing the product. Papers everywhere felt relentless demands for improved stock performance. The resulting policy of slash-and-burn cost-cutting has left the landscape littered with frail, failing, or gravely wounded newspapers which are increasingly useless to any reader who cares about what is happening in the world, the country, and the local community. Cost-cutting has reduced the number of correspondents stationed abroad, shriveled or closed news bureaus in Washington, and crippled local reporting staffs which once kept an eye on governors, mayors, state legislatures, small-town rascals, crooks, and jury suborners. It has also shrunk the size of the typical newspaper page, cutting the cost of newsprint by cutting news content. ...

And on blogging:

... Blogging is a more interesting development, perhaps because bloggers are so passionate about it. It is a valuable restraint on careless and sloppy journalism, for the vigilance of the bloggers misses not the slightest error or the least omission, and the fury of their rage is terrible to bear. Committed bloggers insist that they are practicing journalism just as surely as a correspondent like John Burns is practicing journalism when reporting on the Iraq war from Baghdad for The New York Times. Anyone wishing to debate the point must be ready to argue all night and well into next week. What is indisputable is that practically every blogger can now be a columnist. With vast armies of columnists blogging away, it seems inevitable that a few may eventually produce something original, arresting, and refreshing and so breathe new life into this worn-out journalistic form. ...

I think that the NYRB eventually put s articles behind DRM, but this one is currently up and readable for free.  Link:  New York Review of Books.

I was reminded to post this to this blog by a commentary on Baker's essay by Peter Osnos of The Century Foundation (The Platform: "Goodbye to Newspapers?).  He writes:

... Of course, news delivered on paper is in trouble. The declines in advertising and circulation revenues are serious. The sale of Dow Jones to Rupert Murdoch has symbolic and business consequences and the loss of 1½ inches from the New York Times to save money on newsprint diminishes the size if not the stature of this pillar of journalism. All these are reflections of profound changes under way and not, it is widely assumed, for the better when it comes to the way we get news. The dismal statistics are combined with news peoples’ natural tendency—an essential component in the business—to favor bad news over good and to be skeptical of anyone at the helm. Nearly everyone in journalism reads Romenesko, the daily billboard of news about the news and in its comprehensive account of cuts and losses; the impression is unavoidable of inexorable decline.  ¶ But that story line, I believe, is only part of the story. Everything you’ve read about the travails of the newspaper business is true. Yet as we head towards Labor Day, a traditional time of renewal in news and business cycles, it is worth noting what else is happening to the art and science of gathering and delivering news that represents a future that is probably unavoidable and not necessarily bad. The fundamental reality is that newsprint is being supplanted and supplemented by digital technologies. ...

Link:  The Century Foundation.  Thanks to Antoine van Agtmael for the link to the Osnos commentary.  Antoine is chairman of Emerging Markets Management LLC and author of The Emerging Markets Century: How a New Breed of World-Class Companies Is Overtaking the World.  --Dennis

Monday, 20 August 2007

Blu-ray outpaces HD DVD in U.S.

Reuters is reporting that Blu-ray HD discs outsold HD DVD discs in the U.S. by two-to-one in the first half of 2007.  I, of course, bought an HD DVD player when it dropped below $300 at Costco (context: I bought two Beta VCRs before I bought my first VHS one).  Blockbuster announced it's going to stock Blu-ray, but on the other hand Wal-Mart announced it's building a zillion HD DVD players in Asia for the holidays.  So maybe the jury is still out.

Two observations about HD DVDs:  The discs seem to be more sensitive to scratches than standard DVDs.  One we received from Netflix was unplayable for more than about 15 minutes at a time, then one had to start over and hope it skipped the scratch the next time.  Also, while the video quality is great, it's not hugely better on my 50-inch monitor than video from an upscaling standard DVD player.  Those now sell for under $100 and do a great job.  --Dennis

Link:  c|net News.com.

Sunday, 19 August 2007

Digital must-carry vs. faster IP-over-cable Internet access

Michael Harris makes the following proposal:

... Not surprisingly, MSOs and cable programmers continue to cry foul over broadcast digital must-carry and the possibility of multicast carriage. They well should. (See Cable's All-Upset Over All-Digital.)  ¶  But what the cable industry has failed to articulate is an alternative plan for the use of the spectrum that would be wasted under digital must-carry requirements.  ¶  Here's a suggestion. If the FCC deep-sixes digital must-carry, MSOs pledge to use the spectrum to rollout 100-Mbit/s Internet access nationwide. Move the argument into the marketplace, and empower consumers to pressure politicians still under the spell of broadcast lobbyists. ...

Link:  Cable Digital News.  I'm not advocating a position here, but we broadcasters might think about whether having a 100 mbps pipe to consumers might be better for our business model in the long run than trying to monetize more linear channels on already over-stuffed cable systems.  --Dennis

No Holy Grail For Online Video Ad Model...

David Kaplan writes:

Viewers of online video have never warmed to having to watch a preroll ads, and so, sites and marketers have been desperately searching for marketing vehicles that will click with consumers.  A WSJ piece surveys some possibles answers. One format being pursued is the use of graphics that slide over the bottom of the video-viewing screen - sometimes called referred to as overlays, bugs or tickers - as the best way to monetize online video. Another method advertisers have been trying out is wrapping the video players in skins. And still others haven’t given up on prerolls, attempting to make them more palatable by shortening the ads to five seconds or inserting a countdown timer telling viewers when the actual content will begin. ...

Link:  paidContent.

Goldhaber vs. Keen

Andrew Keen's book, The Cult of the Amateur, has attracted a lot of incoming missiles.  Last month, I linked to critiques by Clay Shirky and David Weinberger.  Michael "Mr. Attention" Goldhaber has just published Part I of a response to the book on his weblog he's titled, The Cult of the Professional.  I'll link to Part II when he posts it.  Link: Michael H. Goldhaber

Updated 31 August 2007:
Here's Part II, Social Networking vs. Gulags.  --Dennis

The BBC's iPlayer and ISP pushback

The BBC's current iPlayer beta has attracted a lot of comment in the blogosophere -- mostly about DRM and the Windows XP limits of the beta version -- but real story here is that ISPs in the UK have chosen this announcement as an occasion to make political points about capacity issues.  These complaints have the strong potential to be heard elsewhere in the world also as more and and bigger video files transit the Web, especially via P2P networks, legal and otherwise.  Here is a summary of stories about this development.

Jeremy Penston, iPlayer Politics: Behind the ISPs vs BBC row.  Link:  The Register.

Chris Williams, BT rubbishes BBC bandwidth throttling reports.  Link:  The Register.

Jack Schofield, ISPs warn BBC over iPlayer bandwidth use.  Link: The Guardian.  Included mostly for its links.

Bobbie Johnson, Bandwidth threat as on-demand TV grows.  Link: The Guardian.

Om Malik, Broadband ISP's Fear of the Web Video.  Link:  GigaOM.

Tim Ferguson, BBC iPlayer a Bandwidth Hog? Link: BusinessWeek.

Robert Andrews, BBC iPlayer Bandwidth Concerns - More Investment Needed, Regulator Says.  Link: paidContent.

Update 20 August 2007:

William Cooper, Broadband service providers threaten to throttle iPlayer.  Link: Informitv.

Then, to put this into some perspective, also read Om Malik's Online Video To Boost Internet Protocol (IP) Traffic.  He writes:

It should come as no surprise: the big and fat video files are one of the main reason why the bandwidth glut created by overbuilding in the telecom boom of 1990s is evaporating. The good news is that the demand for bandwidth is not going to end any time soon.  ¶  A report released by Cisco Systems (CSCO) predicts that consumer-related traffic running over IP networks is going to grow at a compound annual rate of 58 percent from 2006 to 2011, and will end up totaling 17 exabytes per month by 2011. ...

Link:  NewTeeVee.  --Dennis

How the MyFox deal badly hurts the affiliates

Steve Safran writes:

With the MyFox deal, the Fox-affiliated television stations have just taken the path of least resistance in the area where they need to make the biggest strides. They have chosen ease over risk. ...

... We have seen stations fail in their online attempts. What do those failures have in common?

  • A lack of an independent platform
  • A failure to invest in a station’s own infrastructure
  • The ability to be creative and reflect the needs and desires of their own communities
  • No entrepreneurial spirit
  • Complete control over management
  • No buy-in from the upper ranks
  • Revenue sharing

In short: ownership.

The stations that have failed to make money from their online efforts are those that have failed to take ownership - true ownership - over their sites. By handing over the command and control to vendors, stations get into this loop where A. They produce an inferior product, B. They make no money and so C. They don’t invest in the product. ...

  • Link:  Lost Remote.  This longish essay goes on to make a number of interesting points.
  • In an email heads up about this post, KAKM's John Proffitt adds the following comments:

    This logic follows with how I look at pubcasting station web sites as well.  When control and leadership of online work is ceded to an outside entity -- even one that's a partner/friend/helper -- the local station staff treat online activities as a forgotten backwater and ignore engaging the public in meaningful "new media" ways. ...

    ... Since the web allows for one-to-one and many-to-many connections, using a third party platform strikes me as antithetical to the nature of the web.  To my way of thinking, stations across the country that want to remain relevant and engaged going into the future should do two things:

    1. Drop the word "station" from your vocabulary -- that word has declining value and meaning

    2. Do all your online work and social networking yourself -- never turn that over to a hired gun ...

    Thanks, John.  --Dennis

    Navigating the Media Divide: Innovating and Enabling New Business Models - IBM report

    The best "freebie" white paper I found last year relating to my electronic media responsibilities was IBM's The end of TV as we know it: A future industry perspective, to which I linked in January 2006.  It holds up well today.  So when David Leroy (thanks) pointed me at a pair of related new ones from the IBM Institute for Business Value and with two of t he same authors, I was hopeful.

    The authors (Saul J. Berman, Steven Abraham, Bill Battino, Louisa Shipnuck and Andreas Neus -- Berman and Shipnuck being two of the authors on The end of TV...) didn't disappoint.  Navigating the Media Divide: Innovating and Enabling New Business Models and The fight ahead on media's main streets are, as the titles imply, about more than television -- but then last year's report was relevant beyond television also.
    Ibm_inst_for_business_value
    The papers explore issues around the familiar scenario framework that creates four quadrants with the X-axis being "Distribution and device platforms" ranging from "proprietary" to "open" and the Y-axis being "Content blend" ranging from "Produced by professionals" to "User/community contribution."  They view the upper and rightmost dimensions as being particularly disruptive amd posit that these four quadrants will be the four business models in use over the next 3-4 years.  The figure here (click for larger image) depicts these business models.

    The authors provide ten specific recommendations for media companies some of which seem pretty obvious (e.g., "Put consumers at the center of your business and boardroom"), while others more insightful (e.g., "Give control to get share").

    Link:  IBM: The fight ahead on media's mean streetsIBM: Navigating the Media Divide: Innovating and Enabling New Business Models.

    Also see Saul J. Berman, Adam R. Steinberg and Louisa A. Shipnuck, Beyond access: Raising the value of information in a cluttered environment.  Link:  IBM (pdf).

    Saturday, 18 August 2007

    The Bottom Line

    Michael Rosenblum says that this chart "contains the inevitable seeds of the future.Rosenblum_chart " Click to enlarge image.

    He writes:

    ... Suddenly we move from 3 networks to 500 cable channels. The limitation on number of channels is now no longer the EM spectrum, but rather the capabilities of coaxial cable to carry signal. And as a result, there are a lot more channels. And a lot more channels means a demand for a lot more content.  ¶  In fact, we go from a gross demand for content of 64,000 hours in 1974, to nearly  4.5 million hours in 2003.  ¶  However, at the same time as the number of channels is expanding, the size of the audience remains the same. Now there are many more channels dividing a pie that is essentially the same size as it was in 1973. ...

    Link:  Rosenblumtv.  This is important reading.  --Dennis

    What's happening at KETC, St. Louis

    Webheaderhome Public television station KETC in St. Louis, now under the leadership of the always-progressive Jack Galmiche, has been using consultant Rob Paterson to help it find better connections with its community.  Rob has an interesting overview of what they're doing on his weblog.  Link:  Robert Paterson's Weblog.  --Dennis

    Interview with Rafat Ali

    Rafatali Terry Heaton has a very good interview with journalist Rafat Ali, founder of paidContent.org, mocoNews.net and a third news site dealing with digital content in India.  I've been reading paidContent and mocoNews since they began.  No one does a better job of following the money relating to mobile and digital content.  Link:  Terry Heaton's PoMo Blog.  --Dennis

    Thursday, 16 August 2007

    The State of the Media Democracy - Deloitte & Touch report

    Deloitte & Touche USA LLP has a report based on an online survey conducted by Harrison Group.  Here are survey highlights:

    High Demand for User-Generated Content

    • 40 percent of all survey respondents are making their own entertainment (editing movies, music and photos)
      • 25 percent of Matures
      • 56 percent of all Millennials; leading Millennials (18-24) participate more
    • More than one in 10 Millennials are actively uploading their own videos on the Internet
    • 51 percent of all survey respondents are watching/reading content created by others
    • 71 percent of Millennials, 56 percent of Xers; Boomers/Mature participation is less, but noteworthy
    • 53 percent of Millennials would download more videos if  connection speeds were faster
    • One-third of online content viewing is done on user-generated sites
      • Almost ¼ for Matures, ½ for Millennials

    Long Live Traditional Media!

    • Favorite and promising new television shows beat the Web as the most frequent media conversation topics for all generations
      • Extensive amplification with the Millennials as they tell the most people about what they like
      • 52 percent of Xers are visiting television show Internet sites
    • Printed magazines are an integral part of every generation’s life
      • 72 percent enjoy reading magazines over finding the same information online
      • 58 percent of Millennials agree magazines help them learn about what’s “in”
    • Compared with online activities like surfing the Web and downloading music, all generations aspire to reading a book in the coming year

    Advertising Insights

    • 64 percent  tend to pay greater attention to print ads in magazines or newspapers than advertising on the Internet
    • More than one-in-four would pay for online content vs. being exposed to ads
    • Search engines and word of mouth are the most effective means for driving Web site traffic — 85 percent of Xers are influenced by someone’s recommendation
    • 87 percent of respondents continually visit the same Web sites
    • Generation Xers are a little more responsive to advertising

    Future Products
    Millennials are leading the way as far as embracing new technologies, games, entertainment platforms, user-generated content and communication tools:

    • 64 percent want to easily connect their television to the Internet for viewing videos and downloading content to their television
    • 60 percent want the ability to move their content to any device they own without any problems
    • 57 percent want an entertainment and communication device that lets them do everything
    • 49 percent want a computer or similar device that will be the center of their household media experience

    You can download a PDF of select findings.   Link:  Deloitte.com.  --Dennis

    HD Radio vs. Internet Radio - Which is Radio's Future? - report from Bridge Ratings

    Bridge Ratings has a new report on HD Radio and Internet Radio.  The answer to its title question is already Internet Radio, but that's not to say that HD Radio won't be important.  With the latter, we're only in the first inning, and if you can predict from that how the game will end from that, you're a better prognosticator than I.  My personal view is that HD Radio's future success depends on innovations that tie it more to Internet Radio than terrestrial radio -- such as putting them in the same box and seamlessly tuning from one to another. [click to enlarge images]Internet_radio_growth_2
    Hd_radio_growth

    Back to the Bridge Ratings study.  About three in four respondents have heard of HD Radio, but that's higher in the 25-54 demo than in the 12-24 or 55+ demos.  The 12-24 demo is more interested in having an HD Radio (23%) than either the 25-54 (13%) or 55+ (2%) demos.  Not such good news for those of us in public radio and another indicator for the need to develop programming for pre-Boomers.

    Link:  Bridge Ratings.  --Dennis

    The New Influentials - report from Bridge Ratings

    Bridge Ratings head Dave Van Dyke has a good blog to which I subscribe via RSS and from which I occasionally quote, but I can't find such a feed for the company's main site.  That's too bad, because on those occasions when I remember to check it, I usually find something helpful, such as the subject of this post.  Add a feed, please.

    From the press release (click for larger image):Radio_influentials

    ... It is no longer a world of mass media but rather it is a world of communities of customers and consumers. In an attempt to keep up with the changing world that the Internet has brought, the media world has embraced such things as websites to reach their customers, but it isn't enough. Consumers have gravitated to social media and that is where Influence is finding a significant home.  ¶  Influencers or Influentials are a group of very active consumers involved in "conversation marketing" where word-of-mouth is becoming a significant power in spreading dialog with customers, listeners and viewers. It means creating a conversation with your consumers in which useful information is exchanged so that both parties benefit from the relationship. ...

    ... In the face of technology and a changing consumer experience, the term "radio" now covers not only traditional radio (AM/FM) but also all those digital audio entertainment media that compete with terrestrial radio: Satellite radio, Internet radio, Podcasting, digital music players - even cell phones.  ¶  And because the landscape is changing so quickly and shifting in ways never before expected, radio of all colors and those that advertise on those platforms, must address the problem of audience "scatter" (See Bridge Ratings study #755), i.e. audiences are moving in multiple media dimensions and capturing their attention requires more skill than ever before.  ¶  This is where the Influentials come in. This is the subset of consumer experience which radio must attract. ...

    ... Among the questions, we asked about the role of traditional radio in their futures. 46% thought it was "Very important" for traditional radio to change with more relatable content. Adding "Somewhat Important" brought the score to 77%.  ¶  Only 11% thought it was "Very Important" for traditional radio to remain the same as it is today. An additional 18% thought it was "Somewhat Important". By this panel of Influentials of all ages, traditional radio has some work to do if it is to remain relevant in the near future. ...

    Link:  Bridge Ratings.  --Dennis

     


    Consumers Give Low Marks to Video Downloading

    From a Parks Associates press release: 

    A new survey from market research firm Parks Associates has found that few consumers in the U.S. are satisfied with the videos they download from the Internet. Just 16% say the selection of videos available online is good, and only 13% say video downloads are sold at a reasonable price. Most tellingly, fewer than one in five consumers downloading video say they plan to download videos again in the future.  ¶  Consumers generally download video from one of two sources: peer-to-peer networks that offer unauthorized copies of TV programs and films, or licensed online services like iTunes. Low satisfaction levels might be expected for consumers using unlicensed sources because their quality and reliability are generally low—a consequence of being an unlicensed service. Yet even consumers who exclusively use legitimate services are unhappy with the experience ...

    Link:  Parks Associates.  Thanks to Om Malik at  NewTeeVee.

    Om's colleague Liz Gannes has part of the answer in, Survey Says: Poor Video Quality Drives Watchers Away, writing:

    ... Forty-three percent of people who watch online video at least once a week said they would switch to a competitor if the quality of a site’s video was poor, according to the study, conducted by Jupiter Research on Akamai’s behalf and available for a free download if you cough up your contact info.  ¶ That finding is out of line with the commonly accepted wisdom at NewTeeVee that people prefer availability of content to quality of content — a conclusion drawn from the enormous popularity of YouTube and P2P file-sharing.  However, many, like our fearless leader Om, are eagerly awaiting the day when video quality gets “an HD upgrade,” as he called it last week.

    Link:  NewTeeVee.  --Dennis

    IntraNets vs InterNets

    Mark Cuban is in the HDTV business, among other things,  and recently wrote a provocative piece in his blog about "why the best days of the Internet are behind it."  He writes:

    ... What is the increase in your broadband speed THROUGHPUT over the past 1,2,5 or 10 years ? I went from about 200k in 1997 to about 800k (on a 3mbs advertised number) today. An increase of only 600k. True, its cheaper now than then, but 600k is only 600k. Most people think the throughput TO THE INTERNET of our home broadband connections will increase significantly over the next few years. It wont. Other than dropping fiber in the last mile, not much has changed in the last few years and unless you have fiber to your home, not much will change in the next 5 or more years. Face it folks, the Internet as a platform has stagnated. Its dead as a growth platform. Its like Microsoft windows. From about 1985 to 1995 it was a great platform and there was new software coming out continuously. When was the last time you got excited about a new piece of consumer software written for Windows ? Its a stagnant consumer platform. We switched to browsers for most of our PC activity. We are getting to the point where the browser on the net as a platform is becoming stagnant. ...

    Link:  Blog Maverick.  Thanks to Stephen Hill.  --Dennis

    Wednesday, 15 August 2007

    New Digital Radio Rules Effective Sept. 14th

    Brendan Holland has a summary of the new FCC rules concerning "HD Radio."  He writes:

    • FM stations may commence digital operations without prior authority from the FCC and may use separate antennas for the digital and analog signals without the need for an STA.
         
    • Stations may operate in extended digital hybrid mode, permitting additional capacity.
         
    • AM stations may operate during nighttime hours.
         
    • FM translators, boosters, and LPFM stations may operate digitally.

    These new operational rules will become effective on September 14, and along with them the following rules regarding policy issues will also go into effect:

    • Stations that chose to broadcast in digital must provide a free digital stream that simulcasts the programming of the analog channel.
         
    • Stations have the flexibility to provide multiple programming streams, provide data services, or provide the highest quality audio service.
         
    • Stations may lease the unused portion of their radio spectrum to third parties.
         
    • The existing rules, such as EAS, political, sponsorship ID, and station identification, are extended to all the free streams of programming provided by a station. ...

    Link:  Broadcast Law Blog.  --Dennis

    Tuesday, 14 August 2007

    The Stupidity of Spectrum Auctions in a World of SDR

    The television industry is ending some 80 years of analog broadcasting in February 2009 so that spectrum it's vacating (digital television channels can be more tightly packed) can be auctioned off to help pay for all those wonderful benefits our federal government provides.  The impending spectrum auction has broadband providers and associated businesses salivating and others like incumbent broadcasters and major sports operators asserting some of their devices will cause interference (see here and here).

    But some people make the case that the whole notion of spectrum is outmoded and wasteful.  Consultant Gordon Cook makes the case in a post of this title.  He writes:

    ... It is now possible to build software defined radios that can listen for other spectrum users in the neighborhood and fine tune their behavior sufficiently enough to stay out of each other’s way and hence not interfere.  ¶  The problem was that, even if the Republican FCC were not controlled by the duopolists, whom it pretends to regulate, we would still be shackled by the analogue based presumption of spectrum scarcity.  In a mindless effort to raise revenues for the federal government these private equity based non public good companies have paid for exclusive right to use spectrum where it was formerly thought that only a single person could ever talk in the space in a “single time slot” or frequency. ...

    Link:  Cook's Collaborative Edge.  --Dennis

    Microsoft says failed interference test due to bad component

    Earlier this month, I posted a story about an FCC report (see FCC OET report supports claims of interference by unlicensed devices) that supported claims of interference to DTV reception by proposed unlicensed wireless broadband devices.  Microsoft now says it was due to a bad component in the prototype device.  Bloomberg News reports:

    ... Microsoft said it discovered the broken component during meetings last week with FCC engineers. The company then conducted the same signal tests, in the presence of FCC engineers, on a spare device and found it worked properly, Krumholtz said. ...

    Link:  Boston Globe.

    Also see Glen Dickson's, NAB Issues Preemptive Strike Against Microsoft In White Spaces Battle.  Link:  Broadcasting & Cable.

    Update 14 Aug. 2007:
    Two more.  Nate Anderson, Microsoft: FCC tested broken white spaces device, neglected backup unit.  Link:  Ars Technica.  Kim Hart,  Microsoft Disputes FCC's Rejection of Web Devices That Use TV Airwaves.  Link:  Washington Post.  --Dennis

    Remixes and mashups in education

    Brian Lamb of the University of British Columbia has an article in the current issue of EDUCAUSE Review which provides a very useful philosophical and practical overview of repurposing digital content and the application of this in education.  By way of introduction, he writes:

    ... mashups involve the reuse, or remixing, of works of art, of content, and/or of data for purposes that usually were not intended or even imagined by the original creators. Although the historical roots of remix and mashup culture are deep, the properties of digital media are what have given ordinary individuals the power to reshape works on an unprecedented scale. In recent years, with the emergence of Web 2.0, the ability to copy, to combine, and to remix has been extended. Increasingly, it's not just works of art that are appropriated and remixed but the functionalities of online applications as well.  ¶  For educators and policy-makers, already struggling with the many cultural and logistical challenges posed by digital technologies, mashups complicate the picture even while offering tremendous promise. What, exactly, constitutes a valid, original work? What are the implications for how we assess and reward creativity? Can a college or university tap the same sources of innovative talent and energy as Google or Flickr? What are the risks of permitting or opening up to this activity? ...

    and further,

    ... Remix is the reworking or adaptation of an existing work. The remix may be subtle, or it may completely redefine how the work comes across. It may add elements from other works, but generally efforts are focused on creating an alternate version of the original. A mashup, on the other hand, involves the combination of two or more works that may be very