Technology360

Is Terrestrial Radio Destined to Die?

... asks Celeste Headlee for National Public Radio's Day to Day program.  Here's the set-up:

The Federal Communications Commission is expected to decide next week whether satellite radio companies Sirius and X-M can merge. Satellite radio has roughly 20 million listeners, but new technologies are posing a challenge to market shares.  ¶  Celeste Headlee reports on the development of portable Internet radio. Then NPR's Alex Cohen gets a primer from Wilson Rothman, an editor at Gizmodo.com on the difference between leading radio technologies and Madeleine Brand talks with Mark Ramsey, president of Mercury Radio Research, about why the emergence of new technologies won't spell the end for terrestrial radio.

And you can listen to the audio at this NPR link (0:12:24).  The interview with Ramsey is particularly good.  Thanks to Roger Johnson for the heads up.  --Dennis

FCC’s 13th Annual Video Competition Report

The FCC is out with its annual report on video competition (news release with thanks to Bert Manfredi on the OpenDTV list).  I'll link to the full report when it's posted.  --Dennis

Here are specific findings from the news release:

• The number of TV households and the number of MVPD subscribers increased since the FCC released its last report. As of June 2006, there were 110.2 million TV households, compared to 109.6 million in June 2005. Of that number, approximately 95.8 million TV households subscribe to an MVPD service, versus 94.2 million as of June 2005.
• Section 612(g) of the Act states that: (1) “at such time as cable systems with 36 or more activated channels are available to 70 percent of households within the United States” and (2) “are subscribed to by 70 percent of the households to which such systems are available, the Commission may promulgate any additional rules necessary to provide diversity of information sources.” According to Warren Communications News, a source on which we have traditionally relied, 71.4 percent of households passed by cable systems offering 36 or more channels subscribe to these systems. However, other data sources do not demonstrate that the second prong has been met. As a result, we conclude that the only way to accurately measure the 70/70 test is to collect data directly from the cable industry.  Therefore, the Commission requires each cable operator to submit the following information for 2006 within 60 days under penalty of perjury: 1) the total number of homes the cable operator currently passes; 2) the total number of homes the cable operator currently passes with 36 or more activated channels; 3) the total number of subscribers; and 4) the total number of subscribers with 36 or more activated channels.
• Cable continues to serve the largest percentage of MVPD subscribers. The Report finds that as of June 2006, approximately 68.2 percent of MVPD subscribers received video programming from a franchised cable operator.
• DBS subscribers comprise the second largest group of MVPD households, representing 29 percent of total MVPD subscribers as of June 2006. DBS operators continue to add local-into-local broadcast television service. In approximately 175 of the 210 television markets, at least one DBS provider offers the signals of local broadcast stations.
• The number of MVPD subscribers choosing all other delivery technologies represented 2.6 percent of all subscribers in June 2006.
• The Nielsen Company estimated that, as of January 2007, 15.5 million households, or about 14 percent of all television households rely on over-the air television broadcasts for video programming.  In addition, many households that subscribe to an MVPD also rely on over-the-air signals to receive broadcast programming on some of their television sets.
• From June 30, 2005 to June 30, 2006, the number of commercial and noncommercial television stations rose from 1,747 to 1,753. As of January 2007, approximately 1,600 stations nationwide were on the air with DTV operations, including all 119 stations affiliated with the top-four network affiliates in the top 30 television markets.
• Incumbent local exchange carriers also are providing video service. At the end of 2006, Verizon reported that it offered video programming via FiOS TV to more than 2.4 million households in 200 cities in 10 states and served 207,000 subscribers. At the end of 2006, AT&T served approximately 11 cities through U-verse TV. In addition, Qwest has taken steps to provide IPTV service in its service area.
• As of June 2006, Broadband Service Providers (“BSPs”) served approximately 1.4 million subscribers, representing 1.5 percent of all MVPD households.
• Electric and gas utilities also provide MVPD and other services on a limited basis. The American Public Power Association, which represents more than 20,000 not-for-profit community and state-owned electric utilities, reports that the average subscriber penetration rate for its members offering video service was 50 percent of the homes passed by utility video services, and that 40 percent of these subscribers purchase a combination of video and high-speed Internet access service.
• The number of subscribers to private cable operator systems, also known as satellite master antenna systems, has declined to 900,000 subscribers as of 2006, a decrease of ten percent from last year’s one million subscribers.
• The number of wireless cable subscribers has declined steadily from a peak of 1.2 million in 1996 to approximately 100,000 as of June 2006, unchanged from a year earlier.
• In recent years, major commercial mobile radio service and other wireless providers have begun offering services that allow subscribers to access video programming through handheld devices, such as mobile telephones.
• The amount of web-based video provided over the Internet continues to increase significantly each year. In July 2006, 107 million Americans, three out of every five Internet users, viewed video  online. In July 2006, about 60 percent of U.S. Internet users downloaded videos. More than 7 billion videos were downloaded that month.
• Between July 2005 and June 2006, a total of 28 MVPD transactions were announced. Together these transactions were valued at approximately $5.3 billion and affected approximately 1.8 million subscribers.
• In 2006 we identified 565 satellite-delivered national programming networks, an increase of 34 networks over the 2005 total of 531 networks. Of the 565 networks, 84 (14.9 percent) were vertically integrated, or affiliated, with at least one cable operator. Five of the top seven cable operators own, in whole or in part, all of the networks that are affiliated with any cable operator.
• In 2006, we identified 101 regional networks, an increase of six over those identified in 2005. These networks provide programming of local or regional interest and are distributed to subscribers of one or more MVPDs in an area. Of these, 57 networks, or 56.4 percent, were vertically integrated with at least one multi-system cable operator (“MSO”). There are 43 regional sports networks, representing 42.6 percent of all regional networks, as compared to the 37 we reported last year. Of the 43 regional sports networks, 19, or 44.2 percent, are vertically integrated with a cable MSO.
• The sale of DTV consumer electronics continues to accelerate. The Consumer Electronics Association (“CEA”) estimates that, in 2006, digital televisions (“DTVs”) will have outsold analog televisions by 66 percent.
• The development and deployment of CableCARDs continued in 2006. CableCARDs permit the reception of secured digital cable services without the addition of a set-top box. As of December 22, 2006, more than 216,000 CableCARDs had been deployed by cable operators, up from 90,000 the previous year.
• The Report also surveyed developments in foreign markets. MVPDs in a number of countries provide programming on an a la carte basis or in mixed bundles, themed tiers, and subscriber-selected tiers. For example, in Hong Kong, consumers receive a free basic package and also can subscribe to more programming for an additional charge per channel. In Canada, the largest cable operators offer a la carte services. In the United Kingdom, consumers may select additional programming services they want, either on a subscription or pay-as-you-go basis, without first purchasing a monthly basic-tier package. In India, as of January 1, 2007, consumers in certain cities can subscribe to programming on a per channel basis.

Myth, Media and Meta podcast

As I noted in the previous post below, audio files and presentation decks from the 2007 Iowa DTV Symposium have now been posted online.  This includes my own presentation from Oct. 2nd (and intimidating it was to be presenting the same afternoon as John C. Dvorak and Mark Schubin) titled Myth, Media and Meta: Three Information Epochs and What They Mean for Broadcasting.  Here is the agenda description:

Humans have always created information faster than we create humans. And, consequently, humans are in a constant struggle to extract value from the "noise" of too much information in their environment. The title refers to epochs that are characterized by the techniques we've used. "Myth" being story-telling, poetry, music, etc. "Media" dates from Gutenberg and encompasses traditional broadcasting. "Meta" is the digital age, characterized by use of metadata, compression, "pull" distribution, and distribution systems that can learn user preferences. Broadcasters use all these techniques and social systems may enable them to be successful in "many-to-many" distribution in the future.

Links:  MP3, PPT or for Flash version of the deck click here and scroll down in the Content Track to 4:30 on Tuesday.  Also, I've placed both the MP3 and PPT links permanently in the Files section to the left.

For a written version, see these four posts from early June.  Reboot Redux: Myth, Media and Meta; Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.   --Dennis

Innovation at the Met

The Metropolitan Opera, of all organizations, has been doing a very innovative thing by transmitting its performances in HDTV to movie theaters around the country as well as other innovations.  Non-profit fundraising guru Bob Stein writes:

... [CEO Peter Gelb] has taken opera to the streets--free large-screen broadcasts in Times Square (opening night of Madame Butterfly), introduced $20 rush orchestra tickets and broadcast live performances to movie screens around the world. He's brought directors from the theater world to stage operas, and he even recruited design celeb Isaac Mizrahi to create the costumes for Orfeo ed Euridice.  ¶  What has resulted is a revitalized Met. According to Bloomberg.com,

Sales during the 2006-07 season rose 7.1 percent to 810,225, said Gelb, who succeeded Joseph Volpe in August. In all, the Met sold 83.9 percent of tickets offered for its 3,800- seat opera house at Manhattan's Lincoln Center compared with 76.8 percent last season.

Link:  Major Giving.

The legendary Mark Schubin gave a talk about the Met's Live HD opera-to-theater broadcasts at October's Iowa DTV Symposium.  The talk (The Metropolitan Opera Live in HD: global cinemacasts, robotic cameras, and more) is available both as a PowerPoint (click here and scroll down to the Content Track's Tuesday at 2:30 session) and as an MP3 file.

Just went to the Met web site and see that one of their theaters is about a 75-mile drive from me, so I'm going to buy a ticket and check it out.  --Dennis

BBC, ITV and Channel 4 form on-demand service

BBC News reports:

The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are to launch a joint on-demand service, which will bring together thousands of hours of television programmes in one place.  ¶  The service is set to go live in 2008 and will offer viewers access to current shows and archive material. ...

... The three broadcasters currently offer their own separate on-demand services.  ¶   The BBC's iPlayer and ITV's catch-up service will continue to exist along the new online "aggregator", which will provide a complement to the established providers.  ¶  However, Channel 4's 4oD will no longer be a standalone service once it is incorporated within the project.  ¶  Programming from all three broadcasters will be available for free download, streaming, rental and purchase via the internet, with expansion on to other platforms planned. ...

Link:  BBC.  U.S. public broadcasters are about to be lapped again.

Updated 29 November 2007:
Also see Ryan Jarrett, Finally some sense - BBC, ITV and Channel 4 catch-up services to unite.  Link:  last100.  --Dennis

The end of advertising as we know it

The IBM Institute for Business Value is out with a study with this title authored by Saul Berman, Bill Battino, Louisa Shipnuck and Andreas Neus.  The intro says:

Imagine an advertising world where… spending on interactive, one-to-one advertising formats surpasses traditional, one-to-many advertising vehicles, and a significant share of ad space is sold through auctions and exchanges. Advertisers know who viewed and acted on an ad, and pay based on real impact rather than estimated “impressions.” Consumers self-select which ads they watch and share preferred ads with peers. User-generated advertising is as prevalent (and appealing) as agency-created spots.  ¶  Based on IBM global surveys of more than 2,400 consumers and 80 advertising experts, we see four change drivers shifting control within the industry. ...

Link:  IBM (full report, executive summary PDFs).

In Digital Future: Ideas Wanted, Diane Mermigas provides a detailed analysis of the report.  Link:  MediaPost.  --Dennis

Internet Expands Reach, But Narrows Vision

Diane Mermigas writes:

All this talk about hyper-targeting, super search and selective networking could be a sign of trouble.  ¶  The Internet, a big black hole of infinite content and information, is being segmented by users into relevant byte-sized chunks. Some of the time spent sifting through tagged, blogged and bookmarked content was once used to make more spontaneous discoveries in newspapers, magazines and online. Our need to more efficiently manage digital’s cornucopia invariably reduces our time for random search and enlightenment. Plus, it’s possible that too little serendipity in cyberspace could produce a narcissistic populace well-versed in their own interests, but ignorant about the world at large.  ¶ Certainly the Internet allows users to delve deeper into their interest areas more frequently and effectively than any other platform in history. Instant interactivity promises us more time for other things. But as our online management tools become more pre-set and precise, we become less intent on random search and discovery. It’s a tradeoff that comes at a subtle but significant price. ...

Link:  MediaPost. 

Update 26 November 2007:
Be sure to also read John Proffitt's thoughtful comment to this post below, with which I agree.  --Dennis

Internet May Revitalize Net Ads, Content

Diane Mermigas writes:

... Although new and traditional media are slugging it out over tighter ad spend, the continued shift of dollars from television and print to the Internet is helping to maintain new media momentum. “Internet ad spending could still increase at a healthy rate of 11%, even in the face of an overall ad downturn. That’s due to the powerful effect of the adoption curve of advertisers switching their budgets online,” according to Bernstein Research analyst Jeffrey Lindsay. Even as the advertising sector overall grows at only 5% (or collapses to a flat line in the case of a severe economic downturn), online advertising can continue to grow at rates better than 25%. ...

Link:  MediaPost.  --Dennis

Web Video: Move Over, Amateurs

Catherine Holahan writes:

... One after another, online video sites that have long showcased such fare as skateboarding dogs and beer-drenched parties are scaling back their focus on user-generated clips, often in favor of professionally produced programming. "People would rather watch content that has production value than watch their neighbors in the garage," says Matt Sanchez, co-founder and chief executive of VideoEgg, a company that provides Web video tools, ads, and advertising features for online video providers and Web application developers.  ¶  On Nov. 13 social networking site Bebo said it would open its pages to top media companies in hopes of luring and engaging viewers. "As more and more interesting content from major media brands becomes available, [online viewers] are going to share that more and more because those are the brands they identify with," says Bebo President Joanna Shields. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.  --Dennis

The dynamics of Web-based social networks

First Monday has published a scholarly article by Jennifer Golbeck titled, The dynamics of Web-based social networks: Membership, relationships, and change.  The abstract:

Social networks on the Web are growing dramatically in size and number. The huge popularity of sites like MySpace, Facebook, and others has drawn in hundreds of millions of users, and the attention of scientists and the media. The public accessibility of Web–based social networks offers great promise for researchers interested in studying the behavior of users and how to integrate social information into applications. However, to do that effectively, it is necessary to understand how networks grow and change. Over a two–year period we have collected data on every social network we could identify, and we also gathered daily information on thirteen networks over a 47–day period. In this article, we present the first comprehensive survey of Web–based social networks, followed by an analysis of membership and relationship dynamics within them. From our analysis of these data, we present several conclusions on how users behave in social networks, and what network features correlate with that behavior.

Link:  First Monday.  --Dennis