Technology360

R.I.P., HD DVD

Back in the early 80s, I bought a Betamax VCR and replaced that with another Betamax VCR before that format bit the dust and VHS won.  I can really pick 'em.  Just over a year ago, I bought a Toshiba HD DVD when Costco dropped the price to $300.  It's now a pretty good upscaling DVD player, but you can buy them for under $100.

Cliff Edwards writes:

... while Toshiba lies vanquished, the Blu-ray camp now faces a slew of technical, business, and marketing challenges in driving consumer adoption of their victorious standard. To an extent, those issues have been just as much to blame as the format war for slowing the adoption of the high-definition successor to the standard DVD format. "Now that the format war is over, it's just dawning on everybody that our work is just beginning," says Andy Parsons, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, and a senior vice-president at Pioneer. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.  --Dennis

Analog TV RIP, one year from today

One year from today, over-the-air broadcast television stations will cease analog transmissions and they will rely exclusively on their digital transmitters that are, for the most part, already on the air (low-power translators and LPTV stations will continue on in analog for an unspecified time after that).  WRAL-TV in Raleigh began digital broadcasting 11½ years ago, but it was only in the last two years that receivers that kinda sorta work became available and only in the last half year that sales began to take off.  The government is subsidizing converter boxes for those who want to view DTV on their old analog sets (these won't give you HDTV, even with a digital monitor).  Consumers who are converting are finding a very different viewing experience -- the signal is perfect except when it's not there at all.   Moving the antenna is often necessary to get all stations in your area, but moving also means you have to rescan all your channels.  Rabbit ears once sufficed but, what's that you say?, the FCC designed this system to require outdoor antennas up 30 feet in the air?

It's been a long strange trip and, true to the name of the rock group that made that phrase famous, we'll see if we broadcasters can survive this transition or if we'll become the new "grateful dead."  --Dennis

Why Low Def Is the New HD

Daniel Eran Dilger takes a while to get to his point (though along the way you get a very good education about consumer video), but that point is a very interesting one about the video marketplace today.  He writes:

... Apple happens to be positioned to ride the sweet spot of LD/SD content right now, and has the infrastructure and hardware to deliver HD content using the same iTunes ecosystem with Apple TV in the future. Apple has bet on the mainstream 720p HD format as the best balance between high quality content and downloadable file sizes.  ¶  That will enable the company to transition to offering HD programming from iTunes as consumer’s bandwidth availability increases and the demand for HD expands. Until that happens on a large scale, Apple will continues to sell the most content because it has targeted what consumers want–convenient downloads–not what other vendors are all trying to sell: high end, high priced HD. ...

... Estimates suggest that by the end of the year, there will be an installed base of about a million standalone HD-DVD and Blu-Ray disc players, besides the 7-8 million PlayStation 3 consoles that can also play Blu-Ray discs. That makes less than ten million HD players in total, compared to around 40 million video playing iPods, and hundreds of millions of iTunes installations capable of playing back iTunes content directly from a computer or through an Apple TV. ...

Link:  RoughlyDrafted Magazine.  Highly recommended article.  Thanks to Craig Birkmaier for the tip.  --Dennis

HD DVD players hit $99

Most pundits (e.g., Phillip Swann) have been saying that Blu-ray will beat out HD DVD in the high definition disc format wars, but don't count the latter out just yet.  Matthew Moskovciak from CNET reports that Wal-Mart and Best Buy are offering the Toshiba HD-A2 for sale at $99 while quantities last, one-fourth the cost of the cheapest Blu-ray player.  To sweeten this sweet deal, Toshiba is offering five free movies.  I bought the HD DVD format when it reached $300 at Costco a few months ago -- but then I owned two Betamax VCRs by the time I realized that VHS was going to win.  Link:  CNET.  --Dennis

DVR viewership eating away at DVD watching

Eric Bangeman writes:

... Another group may be moving the DVR further up on its list of disliked technologies in the wake of Ofcom's fourth annual report on the state of the UK's communications market. In the survey, 31 percent of DVR owners said that they are watching fewer DVDs.  ¶  There are a couple of factors working in favor of the drop in DVD viewership. First, some DVR owners are using the devices to build up their movie libraries. Did you miss it in the theaters and forget to rent it when the DVD was released? No problem—wait until it's on HBO and record it to watch at your leisure.  ¶  DVRs also give owners more TV options. Why run down to the local video store if you have several hours of your favorite TV shows awaiting your viewing pleasure? Watching all of that recorded TV eats away at the time available for watching DVDs. ...

Link:  Ars Technica.  --Dennis

Blu-ray outpaces HD DVD in U.S.

Reuters is reporting that Blu-ray HD discs outsold HD DVD discs in the U.S. by two-to-one in the first half of 2007.  I, of course, bought an HD DVD player when it dropped below $300 at Costco (context: I bought two Beta VCRs before I bought my first VHS one).  Blockbuster announced it's going to stock Blu-ray, but on the other hand Wal-Mart announced it's building a zillion HD DVD players in Asia for the holidays.  So maybe the jury is still out.

Two observations about HD DVDs:  The discs seem to be more sensitive to scratches than standard DVDs.  One we received from Netflix was unplayable for more than about 15 minutes at a time, then one had to start over and hope it skipped the scratch the next time.  Also, while the video quality is great, it's not hugely better on my 50-inch monitor than video from an upscaling standard DVD player.  Those now sell for under $100 and do a great job.  --Dennis

Link:  c|net News.com.

The 700 MHz Controversy - Fighting Over the Reclaimed TV Spectrum

About FCC rules relating to the upcoming auction of some spectrum currently occupied by UHF television broadcasters, David Oxenford writes:

... Users of the Internet, led by Google, have argued for an open system, where a subscriber pays for access to the wireless spectrum, and can essentially connect any device or receive any service, just as long as it does not damage the network.  This is much like the current wired telephone network, where a consumer can connect a telephone or a fax machine or a laptop computer and get access to the network.  Proponents of this model contend that it will encourage technological development as companies compete to develop different applications that can run on the network,and provide a "third pipe" into the home providing high speed Internet access to compete with that provided by cable and telephone companies.  Some might assume that content providers like broadcasters would favor that open approach so that their content can be easily delivered to the consumer, without the broadcaster having to cut any sort of deal with the network provider to get access. ...

Link:  Davis Wright Tremaine's Broadcast Law Blog.

Also see Eric Bangeman's Google announces intent to bid on 700MHz spectrum auction, if...:

... The four conditions outlined by Google in its letter announcing its intent to bid would go a long way towards ensuring that the freed-up spectrum fulfills its potential as a "third broadband pipe." Under a truly open network, consumers would be able to use any application on any device that they want. Also, winning bidders would be forced to license their spectrum at wholesale prices, which would keep one or two companies from gobbling up all the spectrum and limiting competitor (or even customer access to it). Lastly, ISPs would be able to interconnect freely to the 700MHz network at any technically feasible point. ...

Link:  Ars Technica.

Then see Miguel Helft's F.C.C. Heading Toward Rejection of Google's Wireless Auction Conditions:

... The commission’s chairman, Kevin Martin, proposed his version of so-called “open access” rules that would apply to about third of the spectrum being auctioned. These would allow consumers to connect to the wireless network with any device running any application. The two Democratic commissioners said they supported the idea, and the two Republican commissioners said they were undecided.  ¶   But a key point Martin, a Republican, would not support, and that Google insists on, is a rule forcing whoever wins the spectrum at the auction to wholesale parts of it to other companies who want to resell it. ...

Link:  New York Times. 

Finally, check out Robert X. Cringely's Is Google on Crack?: Eric Schmidt bets the ranch on wireless spectrum.  Link:  PBS. --Dennis

Bob Cringely: When is a TV not a TV? -- also, Neokast

Says Cringely:

When it is an Apple TV - the High Definition DVD-killer ...

... Apple TV will be the spoiler of many a Blu-ray or HD DVD sale because Apple TV is cheaper and easier, has no expensive consumable media, and HD movies will probably cost a little less to buy through iTunes than at Target. ...

But most of this column is about Neokast, a very interesting video distribution technology based on multicasting with which he suggests Apple hook up.  Unlike broadcasting, where multicasting means sending multiple program channels over one broadcast RF channel, the term multicasting here is used in the Internet sense, where it refers to a technology that enable multiple users to access a program without the origination point having to simultaneous send out multiple copies of that program -- one to each user.

Link: PBS.org.  See also Bob's NeoKast QuicKast entered beta this morning.  Link:  Technology Evangelist.  And Paul Kapustka's Neokast, Emerging from the shell.  Link: NewTeeVee.  --Dennis

Converters Signal a New Era for TVs

Jacques Steinberg writes:

... the National Association of Broadcasters, the powerful trade lobby representing the nation’s television networks and stations, lifted the curtain on two prototypes for those basic digital converters — one made by LG, the other by Thomson, which is distributed under the RCA brand — that will start appearing in electronic and department stores in January, at an expected cost of about $50 to $70. ...

Link:  New York Times. 

As if this whole conversion thing wasn't confusing enough to consumers (and to us broadcasters as well), buyers now need to be aware that these basic converter boxes are designed to make your old analog set work with the new digital standard.  It does not convert your old analog set into an HDTV receiver nor does it enable you to receive HD on even an HD monitor.  For that you will need a somewhat more sophisticated box that supports HD.  Another alternative is the emerging category of VCR replacements; that is, DVD recorders that have built-in ATSC tuners.  I saw a Panasonic version the other day at Costco for $300 (includes HDMI interface).  It has 1080i upscaling for DVD playback, but I can't tell from printed specs if the ATSC converter supports HD.  And Wal-Mart is selling two Magnavox units with built-in digital tuners for $190 and $145 (thanks, Ralph Hogan).  That's less than I paid for my stand-alone Samsung ATSC set-top box, but beware, like the new cheap converters, both are Standard Definition only tuners.  Here are some comments about the more expensive Magnavox on the AVS Forum.   --Dennis

The futility of DRM

A code to unlock the HD-DVD DRM was just released into the wild, as Andy Carvin writes:

... The runaway social news site Digg found itself under siege by its own members, as they rose up in revolt against the site owners. A couple of days ago, Kevin Rose and his team had decided to remove a digg story containing the encryption key required to crack HD-DVDs after receiving a take-down notice.  ...

... Faster than you can stand and shout, "I'm Spartacus! I'm Spartacus!," countless digg members were posting stories with the HD-DVD encryption key. Digg simply couldn't keep up with the revolt as it spread like wildfire. Someone even started making the key available on a t-shirt. Eventually, Digg founder Kevin Rose decided to back down in a blog post that actually included the encryption key in its title, despite the potential legal backlash. ...

Link:  Andy Carvin's Waste of Bandwidth.

Of course this provided fodder for countless blog posts this week, including the following from which I borrowed the title for this post.  Bill St. Arnaud writes:

Once again we are seeing an open rebellion against the attempts by the MPAA and RIAA, under the DMCA act, to censor and control the publication of keys for HD-DVD discs. When will these guys ever learn that DRM will never work in a large scale distribution of content. They continue to want to protect a failed business model through flawed DRM technologies, lawyers and take down orders, rather than develop new innovative marketing strategies. ...

Link:  Bill St. Arnaud.  Thanks to Gens Johnson for the tip.  --Dennis

HDTV department of personal experience

A couple of weeks ago, the falling prices for larger HDTV sets got the best of me and Costco made a sale of a 50-inch Maxent plasma monitor.  We already had a 27-inch Maxent LCD monitor and a 32-inch Panasonic CRT behemoth and a Hisense ATSC decoder (USDTV brand, 4th-gen. chip) to go with the latter.  I bought a new Samsung ATSC decoder (5th-gen. chip) to go with the new Maxent and it does a great job, though because its navigation data aren't displayed when using the S-video or composite outputs, don't get this one to receive DTV on your old analog set.  I also bought a Sony DVD player with HDMI and upscaling (to 1080i).

Here's what I learned:

• The two older sets are really too small given our viewing distance for it to matter much what one feeds into it, but the new one makes cruddy old NTSC look even cruddier.  The HD out of the new ATSC decoder looks very nice on the screen, and even at distances greater than the maximum for HD to be fully discernable, it looks better than NTSC using S-video and a lot better than DirecTV's dumbed down NTSC.
• HDMI connections provide a significantly better picture than component connections (Y/Pb/Pr, the three-cable assemblies with red, blue and green color coding).  But be careful where you buy your HDMI cable.  I bought the Samsung ATSC decoder at Circuit City for a decent price, but they were selling Monster cables for obscene prices -- $90 for a 1-meter HDMI cable and $120 (or was it $130) for a 2-meter version.  I went next door to Costco and got a 2-meter cable in a sort of HDTV variety pack of five others for $85.  I later learned that Wal-Mart has them for $30 and that you can buy them online for $5-$10 after rebates.  But do use HDMI to connect your components together.
• The 5th-generation chip in the Samsung set-top box is significantly better than the 4th-generation chip in the Hisense/USDTV box.  I tried them side-by-side with four antennas (a small UHF Terk log-periodic, an amplified Phillips flat-panel antenna, an UHF corner reflector, and a large attic-mounted VHF/UHF log periodic.  The Samsung got more channels and a more stable picture in every case.  If you're not sure it has the LG 5-th gen. chip in it, buy a monitor rather than a receiver and get this Samsung or other set-top box with that decoder.  You'll save money, too.
• The upscaling/HDMI DVD player does an absolutely amazing job fooling the monitor into thinking it's receiving HD.  The video is very satisfying, and it even does a credible, if less satisfactory job providing simulated surround sound.  It's a mystery why anyone would want to plunk down $600 to $1,200 on a Blu-Ray or HD-DVD when you can have this for $129 and have access to hugely more titles.  I've crossed it off my wish list, though it wasn't too high up anyway since the two competing formats have barely begun duking it out.

--Dennis

The Death of the Disc: Why HD-DVD and Blu-Ray Are Dead on Arrival

Sean Cooper thinks HD discs are DOA because of the Internet, cable on-demand, pricey hardware, and the rise of the hard drive.  He's premature in drawing that conclusion, though he could have added that many people won't get true HD resolution because of where they sit in relation to their screen size (generally, too far away), leading them to wonder why they invested in something that doesn't look a whole heckuva lot better than their old DVD player.  Link:  Slate.  --Dennis

Mark Schubin digital television memo, 21 Nov 2006

Mark Schubin has issued his first "Monday Memo" since mid-September, having been busy with "an explosion of media" at the Metropolitan Opera under its new general manager.  Nice to have him back.

One particularly interesting tidbit is that by 1/2008 we should see a $60 DTV set-top box from LG (their 5th generation chip is the closest thing we now have to a reliable ATSC decoder).  And, of course, there's much more to read.  Link:  OpenDTV at FreeLists.  --Dennis

Negroponte in 1994

I was researching Nicholas Negroponte's "tell me more" idea for the Skip Pizzi post immediately below this one and came across a 1994 interview that Dale Cripps of the HDTV Newsletter made with Nicholas Negroponte at the dawn of the Internet age (and DTV age, for that matter).  Very interesting reading.  Negroponte gives this as part of his response to Cripps' request to "paint a vision of the world in ten years."

... The FCC is reviewing 20 Mb/s solutions right now. Let's say they select one and give you as a broadcaster a 20 Mb/s license. What are you going to do with that license? You are not going to broadcast HDTV. You are going to broadcast 3 or 4 channels of NTSC. Then if you are clever you are going to broadcast 3 channels of NTSC, one radio program, two pagers, digital newspaper and some other unknown data broadcast service. Then all of a sudden on a Saturday afternoon in your local area there is an important college football game you might devote 8 Mb/s to the football game, discontinue one of your NTSC channels (may be not run the newspaper). Then in the middle of the night you might be broadcasting 6 or 7 newspapers. In other words all of a sudden you with your 20 Mb/s space be your own micro FCC allocating your spectrum as you see fit. From the broadcaster's point of view that is really very, very interesting business opportunities. ...

Link:  HDTV Magazine.  NB: Negroponte's name is misspelled in the article.  --Dennis

High-definition DVD market facing static

Sue Zeidler writes:

... The competing formats, Sony Corp.-backed Blu-ray and Toshiba Corp.-championed HD-DVD, aim to provide better picture quality and interactive features, but some early viewers have been underwhelmed.  ¶  "Neither format is selling well or at the level I had expected. I had expected early adopters to step up and other retailers have had the same experience," said Bjorn Dybdahl, president of San Antonio, Texas-based specialty store Bjorn's. ...

Link:  Reuters.

Gee, do you suppose it's because the experience of going from regular to DVD to high definition DVD might be visibly less compelling for most than the earlier experience they all had of going from cruddy old analog TV to a digital monitor -- especially to a regular DVD on a digital monitor?  A regular DVD on a digital monitor will give you ED quality.  A regular DVD on an HD monitor will give you ED quality.  And a high definition DVD viewed on an HD monitor will also be perceived as ED quality when viewed at a non-optimal distance from the screen.  I'd bet that most real world viewing of HD monitors in the living room or den is done at a distance beyond that for which the acuity of the human eye can perceive the difference between ED and HD.  --Dennis

Consumer electronics fidelity and consumer behavior

Kevin Maney has an insightful and lengthy article on this topic in USA Today.  He writes:

... “Consumers began to vote in favor of increased control over and customization of media, and have consistently proven they're willing to sacrifice fidelity to get it,” says Trip Hawkins, who founded mobile-game maker Digital Chocolate based on that premise. The company makes low-fidelity games that take advantage of cellphones' strengths.  ¶  Cost is part of convenience. The lower the cost, the more people consider something convenient. A home theater system for $10,000 isn't a mass-market threat to movie theaters. A $1,000 home system is.  ¶  The two concepts together — fidelity in smaller packages and consumers seeking convenience — become a powerful force. ...

Link:  USA Today.

Mark Ramsey had two related posts, also insightful in the radio context, one before and one after Maney's article.  So be sure to also read "Good enough" is the new "Best" (link:  hear 2.0) and "Fidelity" and the future of radio (link:  hear 2.0).  And thanks to Ramsey for the link to Maney's article.  --Dennis

Mark Schubin's DTV memo for 9/1/2006

Mark Schubin has posted his latest news memo on digital television to the OpenDTV list.  --Dennis

Mark Schubin's Monday Memo on DTV for 8/7/2006

Mark Schubin's latest "Monday Memo" for digital television is available on the OpenDTV list is available at FreeLists.  --Dennis

Mark Schubin's memo on digital TV for 7/26/2006

Mark Schubin's frequent memo on digital television developments for July 26, 2006 has been posted to the OpenDTV list.  Link: FreeLists.  His lead story this week is TiVo starting a research division.  The story quotes the New York Times, and I'll make a separate post on it.  --Dennis

Coming Soon to a TV Near You?

Ronald Grover writes:

It's the Holy Grail of the movie download business. Movies straight from the Internet to your TV, none of that watching the flick in your straight-back chair while peering at your computer monitor. Now, for those who want to watch movies the way they should be enjoyed—that is, while curled up on your couch—comes the first downloadable movie that can be burned onto a DVD. On July 19, CinemaNow, a movie download site backed by independent film studio Lionsgate Entertainment, Microsoft, Blockbuster, and others, announced it will be the first to provide that service. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.

Mark Schubin's memo on digital TV for 7/17/2006

Mark Schubin's latest "Monday Memo" on digital television -- this one actually published on a Monday! -- is available on the OpenDTV list.  --Dennis

Apple to announce iTunes movie rentals

Ryan Katz writes:

... Think Secret has learned exclusively that CEO Steve Jobs will use his keynote address to announce the debut of movie rentals through the iTunes Music Store. While the announcement will undoubtedly be billed as a further extension of iTunes' dominance in digital media downloads, it represents a coup for the movie industry, which will have succeeded in standing its ground against Apple's pressures to offer consumers the option of owning movie downloads. ...

Link:  Think Secret.

Umair Haque thinks it's a mistake.  See Jobs Effect.  Link:  Bubblegeneration.  --Dennis

Next-generation DVDs tested

Jonathan Fildes has a comparison of Blu-ray and HD-DVDs at BBC News.  --Dennis

50 TB organic discs on the horizon, maybe

Anders Bylund writes:

Are we on the brink of a data storage revolution? Professor Venkatesan Renugopalakrishnan would like to think so, because he has developed a medium that should allow 50 TB of data stored on a DVD-sized disc. His research team, in cooperation with Japanese electronics giant NEC, has developed a prototype disc covered in a modified form of bacteriorhodopsin proteins.

Link:  Ars Technica.  So, in other words, if this pans out you'll be able to watch "Creature from the Black Lagoon" using something resembling the pond scum through which he crawled.  Seriously, I'm convinced that storage technology is the place to watch for the next big disruption.  Also see a related post from Monday.  --Dennis

A terabyte of storage on a DVD disc?

Michael Kanellos writes:

Matteris doesn't think optical discs, even Blu-ray ones, hold enough storage.  ¶  The company, which spins out of Israel's technical university Technion, has devised a coating for 5.25 optical discs that can hold up to a terabyte of storage, according to Zohan Gendler, who runs the incubator at Technion. ...

Link:  Future Tech at CNET News.com.

Which New DVD Format? Neither Just Yet

David Pogue wrote a comparison of the early Blu-ray and HD-DVD players for the New York Times.  --Dennis

Early experiences with Blu-ray disappointing

Nate Anderson writes:

Reviews are starting to trickle in from those early adopters lucky (?) enough to get their grubby mitts on the first Blu-ray player, the Samsung BD-P1000, ahead of its official launch on June 25. The question on everyone's mind is: now that I've just dropped US$1,000 on a movie player, have I at last scaled the heights of cinematic bliss? The answer is a conclusive "maybe." ...

Link:  Ars Technica.

What Netflix Could Teach Hollywood

David Leonhardt has a great overview of Netflix and long-tail economics in the New York Times.  --Dennis

Netflix CEO confirms download plans

Timothy J. Mullaney writes:

... [Netflix CEO Reed] Hastings is hedging his bets by expanding Netflix into niches that will help it maintain an edge as new rivals emerge. He's positioning it as a film investor and source of high-quality content -- like Home Box Office for DVD rentals. He also wants to be a player in Web distribution, which it will launch by yearend even though Hastings thinks the market for downloading will be tiny for years. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.

Ultra-Multi to end the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray war

Kevin Tofel reports on a rumor from CeBit that a combination Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player will be out this fall  called the "Ultra-Multi."  Link:  HD Beat.

In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax

Ken Belson writes:  "... But movies are only one front in the format war. In throwing its weight behind Toshiba, Microsoft has expanded the fight into the computer and game industries. Later this year, Microsoft will start selling an external drive for its Xbox game that will play HD-DVD discs, countering Sony's effort to turn PlayStation into a high-definition DVD player by adding Blu-ray technology. Microsoft and its ally Intel have also convinced Hewlett-Packard to consider making HD-DVD drives for computers. This would give Toshiba an answer to Dell, which remains committed to the Blu-ray format. ..."  Link:  New York Times.  This is the best overview of the Blu-ray/HD-DVD format war that I've found.  --Dennis

The Fragmented Media Future

David Schatsky writes:  "... Consumers increasingly expect to be able to consume media when and where they want, on any platform or device, in any context. The technology and media industries are beginning to oblige them. Fragmentation is both a cause and effect, creating a cycle in which fragmented audiences lead to fragmented content, which allows audiences to fragment further, and so on.  ¶  These changes will threaten established practices and entrenched interests in the media and advertising sectors, but consumers will benefit and ultimately, companies that can ride this wave will benefit as well. They have no choice. Take movies: Nearly 100% of the growth in movie industry revenues over the last 50 years has come from new markets, such as home video, and new platforms, such as DVD. ..."  Link:  Jupiterresearch.  Thanks to Terry Heaton for the tip.  --Dennis

Starz: 70% of Net's VOD Users Forgo Rentals

Anthony Crupi writes:  "... According to a recent study commissioned by Starz Entertainment Group, 70 percent of TV viewers who use the Starz on Demand VOD service said that they no longer go to the video store to rent movies. Likewise, 72 percent of Starz subscribers reported that they rented DVDs less frequently than before they signed on for the VOD service. ..."  Link:  Mediaweek.

Fate of high-def DVD may lie with Microsoft

Junko Yoshida writes:  "... Several industry sources last week told EE Times that Microsoft is muscling into the optical-disk fray by leveraging its operating-system clout to bundle HD-DVD within Vista, the company's next-generation OS. There is also talk that the software giant may be planning to offer cash incentives — in the form "coupons" — to system vendors or retailers if they agree to support HD-DVD. Such coupons would provide "credits" or "memos" for each PC that is sold with HD-DVD inside. ..."  Link:  EE Times via Digital TV Design Line.

See also HP gets cold feet, endorses HD-DVD.  Link:  EE Times via Digital TV Design Line.  --Dennis

Studios Shun Netflix, No Downloads

Dave Zatz writes:  "Netflix has run into the studio brick wall. At this point the studios have very little incentive to move their media via third-party download: DVD sales are a huge cash cow and they own existing services Movielink and CinemaNow. ..."  Link:  Zatz Not Funny.

Once It Was Direct to Video, Now It's Direct to the Web

John Anderson writes:  "... So what about more general fare with no stars, budgets or hope? That's where IndieFlix, founded by Ms. Andreen and her business partner, the filmmaker Gian-Carlo Scandiuzzi, comes in. Directors submit their films, which are then posted on the Web site (www.indieflix.com). When users log on and click to buy the films that capture their interest, IndieFlix burns them onto a DVD and ships them out. The price for a feature-length film is $9.95. ..."  Link:  New York Times.

Frisky disc biz1

Ben Fritz writes:  "A year after it slashed prices in an aggressive move to hold off competitor Blockbuster, Netflix is moving in for the kill.   ¶  Third-quarter earnings reported Wednesday showed Netco is continuing to boom, surging ahead of its nearest competitor on the Net and directly challenging those in the non-virtual world as well.   ¶  Rather than taking the opportunity to raise prices and focus on profits, Netflix is looking to use its position to put the permanent kibosh on remaining challengers.  CEO Reed Hastings said company will test further price cuts over the next six months to see if it can accelerate growth further without sacrificing margins. ..."  Link:  Variety.

Comcast Proposes DVD/VOD Service

John Dempsey writes:  "... Sensing that the financially troubled Blockbuster is ripe for plucking, Comcast is sounding out the Hollywood studios on the following proposition: A Comcast customer with a digital box will see a menu listing for, say, The 40-Year-Old Virgin as much as six weeks in advance of its scheduled appearance on pay-per-view.  ¶  For a fee of about $17, the subscriber could call up the movie for one immediate video-on-demand showing. Two days later, the DVD of Virgin shows up in the mailbox for the subscriber's permanent collection. ..."  Link:  Video Business.

Discs Are So Dead

Robert Capps writes:  "Two new formats aim to bury the DVD.  But Web distribution will kill them all. ...¶... Blu-ray and HD-DVD are just discs. And while discs have been a great distribution mechanism for the past few decades, as a plan for the next few they stink. Manufacturers and content providers have to pay to produce and ship them as well as make sure consumers have the hardware to use them. By hardwiring manufacturing costs into the system, discs obstruct market evolutions like flexible pricing or small-profit releases that appeal to niche audiences. ..."  Link:  Wired.

New In-Stat Report ... Forecasts the Future for HD DVD and Blu-Ray Disc Sales

The media of the world has been abuzz with the competition between two new approaches that are battling to become the "next generation" of DVD. Reporters have embraced the topic, and remind us of the videotape format wars between Beta and VHS. But today's market is likely to provide winning opportunities for each of the contenders. A new report by In-Stat explains why, and provides bold sales forecasts through 2009. ... Link: In-Stat news release.

Internet and Multimedia 2005: The On-Demand Media Consumer

Arbitron has a new report of this title:  "One in 10 Americans show a heavy preference to control their media and entertainment, according to the latest study from Arbitron Inc. and Edison Media Research—Internet and Multimedia 2005: The On-Demand Media Consumer. The study focuses on new devices and services that allow Americans to exercise more control over the media they consume. Topics include DVRs, portable MP3 players and other on-demand technologies. ..."  A 38-pp summary (pdf) and 49-pp PowerPoint (also pdf) are available on the Arbitron web site.   It's also available at Edison Media Research. Thanks to  Roger Johnson for the tip. --Dennis

David Jennings has a methodology critique of this on his DJ Alchemi weblog entitled, What Does On-Demand Media Really Mean?  Thanks for the tip to Stephen Hill. --Dennis

DVD Market Continues to Grow As Recording Units Gain Share

DVD recorders are beginning to drive the market for non-PC DVD hardware, a trend that keeps the overall global DVD hardware market on the rise, according to In-Stat. The DVD recorder market (not including units connected to PCs) doubled in size in 2004 and will grow by 87% in 2005, ...  Link: In-Stat.

Kill the TV?

Raven writes: "... But this has me thinking about something that I've mused over before. I watch far more TV shows from Netflix than I do movies. I get a movie every month or two, and I churn through a 22 episode season of a TV show every two or three weeks. And they're all TV shows I did not see on TV. ..." Link: A Netflix Odyssey.

High Definition and the future of viewing

The Register [UK] has a comprehensive analysis of the unfolding state of HD.  Reprinted from Screen Digest.  Worth reading.  --Dennis

Record year for DVDs

The home-video industry continued to see green in 2004. Shrek 2 reigned as the top-selling DVD, and DVD sales drove home video revenue to another record, $24.5 billion. ¶ Of that, $21.2 billion was from sales and rentals of DVDs. VHS sales and rentals fell from $6.4 billion in 2003 to $3.3 billion last year. Home viewing once again topped moviegoing, with 2004 box office $9.4 billion. ... Link: USATODAY.com.

What Are Good Friends for? Perhaps for Recommending DVD's

Although Netflix is the unquestioned leader of the online DVD rental business, and is known for its innovative recommendation engine, some subscribers still find it hard to navigate its more than 25,000 titles in search of movies they want to watch. ¶ With that in mind, the company has begun testing a feature called Netflix Friends, which lets users share movie reviews and recommendations directly and automatically with selected friends. The service is scheduled to become available to all 2.5 million Netflix users next month. ... Link: The New York Times.

JVC develops BD/DVD disk to ease Blu-ray transition

Hoping to ease the transition from DVD to Blu-ray Disc, JVC has developed a Blu-ray/ DVD Combo ROM Disc, containing two DVD layers and one BD layer. ¶ Earlier this month, Toshiba and Memory-Tech developed a dual-layer DVD/HD DVD disk able to store both DVD and HD DVD content. JVC expects the Blu-ray/DVD disc to likewise enable customers to view both standard and high-definition video content. The company intends to propose the disc to the Blu-ray Disc Association next spring, with production to begin when BD-ROM players emerge in early 2006. ... Link: EE Times.

Clashing Formats Obstruct HD Video

In what has become a depressingly common ritual, three major Hollywood studios — Viacom Inc.'s Paramount, General Electric Co.'s Universal and Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. — recently committed themselves to issuing movies for home viewing in a new high-definition video format known as HD-DVD. ¶ What's depressing about that? ¶ Namely that three other studios (Walt Disney Co., Columbia/Tri-Star and Metro-Goldwyn Mayer Inc.) have thrown in their lot with a different format known as Blu-Ray. ... Link: Los Angeles Times. Free registration required. --Dennis

Hurry Up and Watch: DVDs Time Out

The Christmas-themed movie Noel most likely won't be coming to a theater near you -- but if you miss it on cable, there's always the self-destructing DVD. ...¶... Disposable DVDs look and play like normal DVDs, except that their playable surface is dark red. ¶ Each disc contains a chemical time-bomb that begins ticking once it's exposed to air. Typically, after 48 hours, the disc turns darker, becoming so opaque that a DVD player's laser can no longer can read it. (Discs can live as little as one hour or as long as 60 hours.) ... Link: Wired News.

Red-ray Discs Achieve 20 GB Storage

Just when you thought the world was going to have to trade-in its red-ray technology fabrication and playback devices on blue-ray, New Medium Enterprises Inc. announced the public unveiling of the VMD (Versatile MultiLayer Disc). The next generation HD disc & Drive contain 20GB of storage capacity on the current red Laser technology platforms using four layers. The new technology would allow high definition content to be shown in genuine HD formats (MPEG-2, 1080i and 1080p) at 30 Mb/sec. ... Link: BENX.US.

DVD developers set for format war

The electronics and entertainment industries are shaping up for the biggest format battle since the "video wars" between VHS and Betamax to decide the future of DVD. ¶ Two rival "next generation" DVD formats look set to be launched onto the marketplace next year. ...¶... And with the DVD market unlikely to support parallel formats, the loser faces the prospect of squandering millions spent on research, development and marketing costs. ¶ Both "Blu-ray", principally backed by Sony, and "HD DVD", which has been developed by Toshiba, are based on the same basic technology. ...¶... Buena Vista Home Entertainment president Bob Chaprek recently told the DVD Forum, an industry association of 220 electronics and media companies, that launching two formats simultaneously risked "potentially crippling the next generation format" and "utterly confusing or aggravating the customer." ... Link: CNN.com.

Wolfsson's Wednesday Words (Mark's Monday Memo), 11/3/2004

Mark Schubin's memo for this week is available at digitaltelevision.com. --Dennis

Those Thursday Thoughts (Mark's Monday Memo), 10/28/04

Mark Schubin's memo for this week is available at digitaltelevision.com. --Dennis

Now playing: Self-service DVD rentals at McDonald's | CNET News.com

The fast-food giant has signed a contract with DVDPlay to place the company's self-service DVD rental kiosks in 13,000 restaurant locations over the next several years, DVDPlay CEO Jens Horstmann, CEO of the Los Gatos, Calif.-based company, said during a presentation at the Consumer Technology Ventures Conference here. ¶ McDonald's has been running a trial with 157 of the machines in 107 Denver-area restaurants and will install a few thousand machines each year starting soon. Grocery giants Albertsons and Safeway have signed deals to put machines in, respectively, 3,000 and 3,500 locations each. Even rental outlets (and DVDPlay competitors) like Blockbuster will invest in the machines. ... CNET News.com link

Blockbuster Online to Leverage Rental Outlets for DVD Mail Distribution

... Blockbuster plans to use its brick-and-mortar rental outlets to deliver movies by mail sometime next year. The action is another body blow to competitor Netflix and others to steal away market share by offering subscribers next day delivery. ... eHomeUpgrade link

Netflix shares tumble after surprise strategy shift

Shares of Netflix Inc. ... tumbled 43 percent to a 16-month low on Friday after the online movie rental company cut prices in response to expected competition from Internet merchant Amazon.com Inc. ...¶ The stock plunged $7.47 to $9.96, its lowest level since June 2003, before rebounding slightly to $10.50 by late morning. It was the biggest percentage loser and one of the most active issues on Nasdaq. ¶ The decline came after Netflix, which established the market for no-late-fee, mail-to-home DVD rentals, said it would cut its general subscription fee to $17.99 from $21.99 on Nov. 1. ... Reuters.com link

The strategy shift to lower prices was in response not just to Amazon, but also to Blockbuster's announcement that it would lower prices as well. See Blockbuster Eyes Netflix, Plans Price Cuts [Lycos link] --Dennis

Netflix, TiVo to Develop Internet Movie Product

Online DVD rental service Netflix Inc. ... and digital video recorder maker TiVo Inc. ... on Thursday said they would jointly develop a product to download movies over the Internet that could mark a revolution in home entertainment. ... Reuters.com link

TV-on-DVD revs at 30% growth rate, report says

DVD releases based on television fare will remain a big growth segment for Hollywood studios in the coming years, with U.S. revenue from this market set to rise 30% per year from an est