Gens Johnson copied me on a report she wrote up on sessions she attended at the IEEE Consumer Communications & Networking Conference in Las Vegas, Jan. 3-6. I thought that her description of the Future of Gaming panel was particularly interesting and she's kindly permitted me to quote it here. --Dennis
"The Future of Gaming panel was one of the most intriguing. First, make note that gaming (not gambling! Despite being discussed at a conference in Vegas) is forecast to increase by 3300% from 2001 to 2006. It will be driven by the subscription model, rather than buying games for your box. One-half of the U.S. population (age 6 and above) play. 40% are female. The average age is 29 years. And it is regarded as a family activity with parents playing with a child. The spontaneous network of video gamers function as an “innovation network” of (unpaid) people who test, provide QA feedback, product improvement suggestions, and self-educate themselves as the game development workforce of the future (often by hacking). See virtual-u.org and whyville.net.
A large growth area for games is learning and training. Games provide an immersive experience. Useful skill improvements and learning are measurable results of games as learning media. Emerging applications include health education (e.g., “Glucoboy” that rewards diabetic kids for managing their insulin) and location-based (LBS) applications. LBS combines GPS info and real-life place/events to create an “augmented reality.” Examples are the back-seat car game for kids that references things they see out the window, or multi-user games that bring people to meet face-to-face using wireless data/PDAs/GPS portable devices. The military is funding a lot of applied research and development in games.
Creating a mixed reality requires location awareness, seamless roaming, micro-payments, and a persistent VR. The virtual world infrastructure needs the same components as the real world in terms of “location, identity, collaboration, content, and commerce.” I was interested to hear augmented reality defined in terms of three dimensions (hey! matching up with the three dimensions that I identified in my Ph.D. research in ’94): a presence metaphor (I called it “here & now”), reproduction fidelity (I called it “degree of mediation”) and involvement or reflexivity (I called it “readiness-to-hand”).
70% of the networked bandwidth is currently consumed with peer-to-peer (P2P) communications. People-to-people are generally 1:1. People-to-things are 1:8. Things-to-things are 1:50. Client-server P2P communication increases networking demand enormously. The core network tends towards indexing and directory functions to route and find P2P resources. There were clearly two camps on whether gaming was going to push broadband connectivity to the home up into the 100Mbps range, or not. One camp maintains that you only need to send command and control information; the other side says that the immersive and detailed video will be sent P2P in the multi-user game environment."