Technology360

Reports of TV's Death Greatly Exaggerated ...

... says emerging media professional Jeremy Lockhorn.  In part 1, he says to go interactive:

... If you're a digital agency or a marketer who's significantly investing in online media, you're already aware of this. It's like expanding banner ads, but on TV. Simply by empowering consumers to interact with your ad, you increase the likelihood they'll remember what you're trying to tell them or take action. We've proven this with ads like the one we built for the launch of Levi's Redwire jeans. ...

Link:  ClickZ.

And, in part 2, he talks about targeting:

... We've used advanced targeting techniques on the Web for years, and many advertisers have benefited from innovations in contextual and behavioral targeting. One of the more powerful targeting strategies is leveraging Atlas targeting capabilities to serve an extremely relevant ad based on what we know about an individual's relationship with the client. We might serve one ad to someone who's never been to a retail site, for example, and a different ad to someone who made a purchase, and yet another ad to a user who made multiple purchases. The process gets really interesting when you start layering dynamically generated creative assets, which can pull in the latest prices, react to such things as current weather conditions, and more.  ¶  The result? Hyper-relevant creative and no need to produce a ton of creative assets. Many of our clients currently employ these approaches for online banner ads. But what if you could apply the same basic thinking to video? ...

Link:  ClickZ.  --Dennis

Why Do You Want Interactive TV?

Interactive TV has turned into the electronic media version of Samuel Beckett's tragicomedy, Waiting for Godot.  Baris Karadogan writes perceptively about why the big media players have never been able to bring it off, even while it's happening on a different platform all around them:

... So while we were waiting for interactive TV, a massively interactive device, your PC, has found its way right next to your PC, and it's game over.  You can get HD content on your laptop.  You can get, or will soon, all kinds of on demand content on your PC, and over time the quality will get better and better and better. ...

Link:  AlwaysOn.  And be sure to read the comment by Ray Podder appended to Karadogan's piece, which includes the following quotable bit of wisdom that goes far beyond this [emphasis added]:

I don't think there is much use for still thinking in terms of "reach" and "consumers".  We are all participants in an increasingly thought-based reality (as opposed to a thing-based reality) who need to express, seek and co-create meaning from our ideas both collectively and individually.  We interact with platforms that keep us connected, keep us relevant, and help us build a stronger sense of self where attention competes with our existence. ...

Thanks to Stephen Hill for the link.

Updates, 16 Feb. 2007:
I emailed this article and Podder's comment to David Liroff who pointed out (thanks) the congruence of this with the work of Pierre Teilhard de Chardin and provided a link to a fascinating 1995article on Teilhard de Chardin by Jennifer Cobb Kreisberg, A Globe, Clothing Itself with a Brain.  Link:  Wired.

This post also has a comment (below) from another old friend, Kim Hodgson, who added a link that's partially obscured in the comment space so I've inserted here.  Kim says:

Re video content via the Internet: Better and better, world without end? Maybe not. See this bit in that appeared recently in the Washington Post:  Google and cable firms warn of risks from Web TV. 

The Post article is by Lucas van Grinsven and is worth reading.  --Dennis

Your TV Would Like a Word With You

Lorne Manly writes:

... Grandiose promises of an interactive future circulated for decades, then seemingly died out a few years back. But today more than 25 million homes can engage with their television on something approaching their own terms. The omniscient television programmer symbolized by the opening of “The Outer Limits” — “For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear” — has been humbled.   ¶  Hard-core football fans with DirecTV can arrange for instant alerts about their favorite players. Dish Network subscribers in 12 states can wager on horse races without hauling themselves from their La-Z-Boys. And some Time Warner subscribers can vote for their favorite reality television contestant by simply pressing a button.  ¶  In the coming months, ESPN iZone will allow Dish Network subscribers to get sports news when they want, rather than waiting until “Sports Center” gets around to them. And the Disney Channel Game Zone will offer kids arcade and character-driven games. ...

Link:  New York Times.

TV Is Now Interactive, Minus Images, on the Web

Maria Aspan writes:

... in the age of widespread broadband access, iTunes video and video sites like Youtube.com, television viewers are migrating en masse to the Internet, looking not only to watch their favorite shows online but also for ways to discuss and engage with those shows.  ¶  As a result, the blogs, communities like livejournal.com and message boards devoted to television shows are becoming more popular — and mainstream — forums for viewer discussion and feedback. And the people behind the shows have taken note. "As fractured as the media market has become, the Internet has become a great means of rising above the noise," said James Duff, the creator and executive producer of "The Closer" on TNT.  ¶  "The Internet is going to turn television into the equivalent of AM radio," he predicted. "People will be talking about their shows and watching their shows in the same place." ...

Link:  New York Times.

The Future of Television in Canada

Rafat Ali points to the executive summary and PDF of a "green paper" with this title written by the consulting firm, Nordicity Group, Ltd.  The preface:

This green paper is a companion document for the [Banff World Television Festival] Town Hall discussion of the future of Canadian television and Canadian television programming.  ¶   The green paper argues that Canada’s future in television will be determined by its ability to seize opportunities and address challenges presented by technological developments, foreign markets, and by its own domestic strategies and policies. This paper dissects the technology challenge, takes stock of the sector’s position in the international production scene, and then articulates policy choices for addressing its financing gap and competitive challenges. In green paper tradition, there are no recommendations. Instead, we present fact-based logic that should underpin an informed debate on key issues and realistic solutions.

--Dennis

Think the Internet will replace TV ? Think again

Mark Cuban writes:  "Craig Moffet of Bernstein Research was asked to testify before the Senate Commerce Committee on the subject of Net Neutrality.  His comments were of course right on the money. The interesting conclusions that can be drawn from his testimony are just as relevant to the discussion of the future of media on the net as they are to net neutrality.  ¶  Craig sites facts and figures that should make anyone who believes that the net as alternative to TV is just around the corner, or will happen this decade for that matter, rethink their position. ...¶... Craig is right.  The last mile into our homes wont have enough bandwidth to support all that we will want to do via our internet connections at home. There is no Moore's law for bandwidth to the home. There is a huge misconception that bandwidth will just continue to experience unlimited expansion for every broadband household.  Its what we are used to with hard drives, processors, all technology. It gets faster, cheaper, bigger. Thats not the case for the next decade with bandwidth.  ¶  The net result is that TV is going to be TV, delivered like TV for a long time to come. (I consider IPTV to be regular TV).  There won't be enough bandwidth for it to be any other way. ..."  Link:  Blog Maverick.

My standard for posting items to this blog is that they present thoughtful opinions, not necessarily whether I agree with them in whole or in part.  When I disagree with one, I seldom push back, but I'm going to do that here.  I think Cuban and Moffet are missing some elements that make use of much more modest Internet pipes useful to a large number of consumers.

• They don't really distinguish between real time and non-real time use, and their argument holds only if all or most programming is required to be delivered in real time.  Many consumers (users of TiVo and other DVR/PVR devices, Netflix subscribers, cable VOD subscribers) are already proving that non-real time delivery is valuable.  If you think of Netflix as a sort of broadband pipe, it's delivering a 1-2 GB movie in 24-72 hours, depending on where you live and when you order it.  An HD movie would be delivered in the same time.
• They don't consider the impact of storage, which is a linear trade-off with transmission capacity -- and probably much cheaper to capitalize.  Today's 100-GB TiVo should be 1.6 TB in five ticks of Moore's law (ca. 2012) and 51 TB in ten ticks (ca. 2020).  Compression technology will continue to make that space more efficient.  Although too young to be proven successful, Moviebeam has the right idea -- a big hard drive, preloaded with movies, that is "trickle charged" with a few new movies over an extremely modest connection (sub-dialup spead over analog television datacasting).
• Finally, they don't consider the impact of advanced (P2P) networking technology.  In P2P systems, the more nodes that store a given file, the faster the download and therefore the cheaper the network that can support it.  Popular television programming and movies are at the core of their argument about capacity problems, yet these files, which are at the fat end of the Long Tail, will by definition reside a lot of places and should be ideal for the benefits of P2P networking.

Added 3/20/2006:  Be sure to read Chris Duncan's thoughtful comments (also posted to Cuban's weblog) below as well as those of some others (including Cuban's reply to Duncan) that have been added to Cuban's original posting.  --Dennis

IPTV and VoD: the great content adventure

Alex Cameron writes:  "... The reason I started Digital TX Ltd was due to hearing this in conversation more times than I care to remember. Time and time again I’ve heard movie studios, broadcasters, TV production companies, record labels and games publishers express to me their deep concern that the enthusiasm shown by ISPs to offer premium content is not tempered by any consideration or understanding for the processes, risks and costs involved in the acquisition of rights to their intellectual property.  ¶  When you have the same conversation with ISPs, the talk is of a highly competitive market where loss-leading products are the norm and margins are forever falling. The landscape never seems to stabilise for a minute, with both regulatory and market forces changing faster than the rate of the technology that is being deployed There is frustration and bewilderment at how time-consuming licensing negotiations are with content owners, indignation at apparent arrogance and pre-paid sales guarantees, and even the most innocent of confusion as to why an industry that could seemingly prosper so effectively from technology seems to regard it with such fear and contempt. ..."  Link:  The Register.

Future of Internet TV Is Coming Into View

Leslie Walker writes:  "... No single company put everything together into a magical product at the Consumer Electronics Show this year, but you didn't need much imagination to connect the booths and see the Internet TV networks of the 21st century struggling to be born.  ¶  The unmistakable theme was how video is moving over the Internet onto home televisions and mobile devices in ways that will finally allow consumers to talk back to their TVs, much as they have been interacting with Web sites for the past decade.  ¶  It wasn't just about time-shifting TV or watching shows on mobile devices, though both were prominently on display. A newer technology known as Internet protocol TV -- IPTV for short -- also made a stir by blending those capabilities while trying to remake regular TV shows into something more dynamic and personal. ..."  Link:  Washington Post.

Also see Beth Snyder Bulik's story, Gadget Expo Opens Window On Media Revolution: Consumer Electronics Show Demonstrates Convergence Becoming Reality.  Link:  AdAge.

Finally, listen to Steve Gillmor's Gillmor Gang podcast for Jan. 6, TV or not TV Gang.  Guests for this podcast were Doc Searls (calling in from CES), Dan Farber, Dana Gardner, Jon Udell and Mike Vizard (mp3, 66 minutes).  Searls:  "... It was kind of an all-out attack on TV as we know it. ..."  Gardner comments on this podcast on his BriefingsDirect weblog, Let's break up the media, broadband, and IT infrastructure companies and build a new world digital Frankenstein . --Dennis

VOD, IPTV white papers

London-based Digital  TX Ltd has posted several white papers of potential interest to the readers of this weblog (there are many others, and you can browse the them here).  Looks like a great resource, but I can't find an RSS feed for the weblog.  I've only had time to read one, but am bring them with me to read as I criss-cross the country over the next few weeks.  --Dennis

Video On-Demand - An Overview
IPTV & Triple Play - The Big Picture
Technical Solution Brief - QoS for Multi-Play Services
VOD and the Case for Content Protection
Video Networks That Pay As You Grow
Video: By Broadcast, or IP?
Triple Play and Competitive Advantage: Lessons from Cable
The Emerging World of On-Demand Entertainment
Raising the Bar for Triple Play with VoD
Requirements for a Home Multimedia Network

Boston's WNDS-TV to Relaunch as "My TV" (WZMY-TV)

Tracy Swedlow writes:  "On September 26th, Boston[*] TV station WNDS-TV will be relaunched as 'My TV' (WZMY-TV). The station says that the rebranding is intended to reflect its plan to give viewers a say in its programming schedule, via its Web site, toll-free phone lines and community events. Viewers will also have the opportunity to appear in the station's programs and station ID's. 'My TV will build a relationship with our viewers by involving them in the station and by delivering entertainment and news that relates to their values and reflects their lifestyles,' Diane Sutter, president and CEO of the station's parent company, ShootingStar, said in a prepared statement. 'Consumers want control of their media, and we are uniquely positioned to give the consumer what he or she wants.' ..."  Link:  ITVT.com. [*] Actually, the city of license for WZMY is Derry, NH.  --Dennis

Why IPTV is DOA

Alex Rowland writes:  "I’ve had a few conversations with folks at different companies servicing the IPTV space over the past few weeks. These conversations have hardened my prior opinion. IPTV is nothing more than cable in sheep’s clothing and cable isn’t going to be the wolf much longer.  ¶  IPTV has a major problem (and lots of smaller ones); it is a closed proprietary delivery mechanism. ..."  Link:  Democracy in Media.

The future of television lies on television, not the Net

Andrew Kantor writes:  "... CBS is simply doing what gadzillions of other Web sites already do: Offering content for people to choose from. Sure, some of CBS' content is professionally produced news, and the result is a very slick site. But in terms of changing things, this Big Deal is pretty much a whoop-dee-do.  ¶  The on-demand Internet is old hat. The future — thanks in large part to the Internet — is true on-demand television. ...¶... In fact, some phone companies have acquired cable TV licenses and are delivering "IPTV" — digital television carried over phone lines, using Internet technology. It's indistinguishable from cable or satellite, except that the line coming into your living room looks like a phone cord, not a TV cable.  ¶  And this is why CBS doesn't quite get it. The future isn't video on the Internet in a little window on your computer. The future is full-quality video over the Internet to your television. ..."  Link:  USA Today.

Cable Industry Wary of Internet Protocol TV: A Content Delivery Technology That Makes Television Interactive

Abbey Klaassen writes:  "... 'This is the single biggest explosion for content,' said Josh Goldman, CEO of Akimbo, a company that delivers Web content to TVs and set-top boxes. 'We’ve already seen it in print and we’re seeing it right now in audio with MP3s. There’s no reason to think that it isn’t coming for the video world.'  ¶  IPTV also creates a host of new entrants to the video-delivery field, a turf formally owned by cable operators and satellite TV distributors. Telecoms Verizon and SBC are spending millions building high-speed networks that will deliver video and are lobbying lawmakers to grant them reprieve from the traditional franchise rules by which cable operators abide. ... Link:  Ad Age.

DirecTV, Echostar Outline Interactive Strategies

... DirecTV Inc. and Echostar Communications Corp. are at the forefront of the interactive revolution in the United States. The two operators, who combined have more than 25 million subscribers, are ramping up their interactivity development efforts and the United States is likely to be one of the most vibrant interactive markets. Already this year, Echostar launched nationwide interactive sporting and karaoke channels for its Dish Network Service. DirecTV announced in January that it will launch a number of new advanced television services that offer viewers more control throughout their viewing experience. ...  Link:  Satellilte News via Telecomweb.

Telco video: Is the third time charmed?

... BellSouth, which is still testing video services and hasn't announced deployment plans, is forecast to pass only 500,000 homes with its FTTC plan in 2006, but then to ramp up quickly to reach 9.5 million homes by 2010 and hit a take rate by then of 35% to achieve 3.325 million video services customers. Qwest remains the great unknown — despite operating video networks already, the company has not yet announced its IPTV plans. Holiday projects a ramp up beginning later — in 2008 — than the other Bells, to reach 2.5 million homes passed by 2010, and a take rate of 25% to reach 625,000 homes served by video. ...  Link:  Telephony Online.

The Real Meaning Of IPTV

... In particular, IPTV allows the service provider to deliver only those channels that the consumer wants at any given time -- unlike traditional television broadcasting, where every channel is delivered to every home on the network. For the first time, it will be economical to deliver a college basketball game to everyone who wants to see it, for example, rather than just a particular local community.  ¶  Of course, IPTV offers more benefits than this to the consumer. For one thing, it raises interactive television to a new level. While interactive TV has been around for more than a decade, it has offered little more than a choice of camera angles from which to view an event. IPTV gives the viewer access not just to an event but to the information related to it. You would have the ability to look at stats and live footage of one game, for example, while watching another. ...  Link:  BusinessWeek.

Yahoo!: Internet Users 'Mesh' Web With Television

Many consumers with broadband access view the Web as an adjunct to television--a medium that provides detailed information about TV programs, plots and characters, according to a new study commissioned by Yahoo! and Mediaedge. Nearly four out of 10 consumers with broadband access (37 percent) look up Web sites related to TV programming, according to report, "It's a Broadband Life," expected to be unveiled today. For the study, Forrester Research surveyed 3,207 U.S. adult consumers online, and researchers from HeadlightVision conducted in-home interviews in 17 households.  ¶ The report also revealed that 34 percent of broadband users look up Web sites mentioned on TV ads. Almost one out of five--18 percent--take part in online polls mentioned on television, and 11 percent go online to learn about characters in a show. ...  Link:  Online Media Daily.

Me TV: Television of the future

CNet has a series of nine articles on this topic published over three days. --Dennis. "New technologies, from on-demand programming to TiVo offshoots to flat screens to HDTV, are radically changing the benign concept of traditional television. Viewers are now gaining control over the mass medium, creating interactive communities and installing custom-made home media networks. As entire industries are redefined, how are networks, content providers and advertisers adjusting their strategies?"  Links:  Finally, you are in control:  All the shows, all the time.  Underground television.  New business on demand. What and when to buy:  Couch potato confusion.  Turbulence in airwaves.  TV hub of home media.  Three digital trailblazers:  NASCAR's interactive content.  BBC's model for broadcast.  Nike's ad race.

Social Software for Set-Top boxes

Tom Coates writes:  "You can download the core part of the material that follows as a PDF presentation entitled Social Software for Set-Top Boxes (4Mb).  ¶  A buddy-list for television: Imagine a buddy-list on your television that you could bring onto your screen with the merest tap of a 'friends' key on your remote control. The buddy list would be the first stage of an interface that would let you add and remove friends, and see what your friends are watching in real-time - whether they be watching live television or something stored on their PVRs. Adding friends would be simple - you could enter letters on screen using your remote, or browse your existing friends' contact lists.  ¶ Being able to see what your friends were watching on television would remind you of programmes that you also wanted to see, it would help you spot programmes that your social circle thought were interesting and it could start to give you a shared social context for conversations about the media that you and your friends had both enjoyed. ..."  Link:  plasticbag.org.  Very interesting bit of creative thinking. --Dennis

Middleband Channels: Television content-aligned

Mark Sigal:  "... In the age of always-on broadband, I think that it is time for someone to build a service around live (or pre-recorded) television content. Think about it. Beyond financial programming, there are logical applications around music, news, sports, reality television and educational programming for "middleband" services. ..." Link: O'Reilly Network.

Interactive TV poised for a rollout

... But just as the tech bubble's promise of "IP" telephone service over an Internet connection is only now becoming a widespread reality, IPTV finally appears to be on the verge of cracking the U.S. mainstream. ¶ Not the cable TV establishment — which questions the technology and the demand for so much interactivity — but rather three Bell telephone companies are taking IPTV off the drawing board in the United States, much as telecom players in Asia and Europe have led the way abroad. ¶ The extent of the Bells' plans vary considerably, but perhaps a dozen markets will see some form of IPTV starting later this year, and millions of homes may have the option by the end of 2006. ... Link: USATODAY.com.

Aiming For "A Very, Very Good-Sized Business"

Microsoft ... first invested in TV technology more than a decade ago but found little success over the years. Now it seems the market that Microsoft and others first envisioned is close to become a reality. Soon, channel surfers will get vast new choices in programming and the ability to customize their selections. And Microsoft's decadelong pursuit gives it much experience to draw on. ¶ Chairman Bill Gates recently sat down with BusinessWeek Seattle Bureau Chief Jay Greene to talk about the company's long-running interest in TV software and prospects for the business going forward. Edited excerpts of their conversation follow. ... Link: BusinessWeek.

The Return of Interactive TV

Columnist John Dvorak writes disparagingly in his opinion piece in PC Magazine in “The Return of Interactive TV,” drawing critical comments on his view that it is an invasive irrelevance. ¶ “It’s assumed that the great benefit of interactive TV will be that the viewer can get more involved in the TV experience.” he writes. He goes on to argue that he already interacts with his television, by tuning it on and off, changing channels, recording programmes and pausing live television. ... Link: informitv.

Digital Kids: Growing Up in a High-Tech World

Cell phones, PDAs, computers and MP3 players may seem a bit confusing to the average adult but for kids born in the digital age, these devices are second nature. For the second part of our series, "Digital Generations," a 13-year old and his family talk about what it means to grow up as a part of the Net Generation. ... Link: NPR.