Technology360

Bridge Ratings: Sweat the cell phone and don't count on HD

... says Mark Ramsey, who has a good summary (link: Hear2.0) of the latest update of Bridge Ratings' digital media growth projections.  But you should check out the Bridge Ratings report directly since it's full of useful info, including:

... Internet radio continues to show the most significant growth of monthly users of those media we cover in this analysis. At the conclusion of 2006, we estimate that 24% of the U.S. population or 72 million Americans listened to on-line radio in the previous 30 days. In this newest update of the report 25% have listened in the previous 30 days. Weekly listening has also climbed with 19% of the sample listening to some form of Internet radio in the previous 7 days up to 57 million per week. ...

Link: Bridge Ratings.  Must reading.

Update:
Also see comments by Sue Schardt, We're not dead.  Link:  Schardt Media.  --Dennis

Slacker.com: The radio revolution arrives this summer

... says Mark Ramsey.  Mark has an audio interview (MP3) with Slacker.com's head of marketing, Jonathan Sasse, who describes upcoming developments.  Slacker is a music service that learns user preferences and effectively delivers customized "radio stations" for the listener.  It's not the only such service. 

But the new developments are particularly interesting.  Coming this summer is a portable playback device that operates in WiFi hotspots and enables the user feedback on songs played.   This is a caching device, so music it downloads while you're in a hotspot it will be played back based on your preferences when you're out of the hotspot.

But wait ... there's more.  The really radical thing in the works is a satellite fed kit for automobiles.  This device will catch and cache a bunch of music from the sky and create for you on the fly program streams that reflect your preferences.  Seems to me (and to Mark) that this may deflate (technology, yes, but ultimately competitive balance also goes to how successful the competition is in attracting subscribers) the monopoly arguments that us broadcasters are using to oppose the proposed Sirius/XM merger.

Link:  Hear2.0.

Satellite Radio's biggest problem

In Part 1, Mark Ramsey writes:

It's not the quality of the content or its variety.  ¶  It's not the cost of the radios.  ¶  It's not the cost of the subscription or whether or not satellite radio is "worth" paying for.  ¶  It boils down to two factors, and here's the first one:  The process of acquiring satellite radio is a big hassle. ...

Link:  Hear2.0.

Updated 14 Apr. 2007.
Here's a link to Part 2. 

But also read Bob Lefsetz's take:  How Did Satellite Radio Become Uncool?  Link:  The Lefsetz Letter.  --Dennis

Choice vs. Limitations

Mark Ramsey makes this observation:

... Everybody thinks they want more choice.  In fact what they want is their choice - and the shortest possible path to it.  ...

... Here is one of the most elegant discussions on this topic I have ever seen.  ¶  Read it and you'll quickly get the sense that better creations are superior to more creations. ...

Link:  Hear2.0.

What's not there yet key to media future

Diane Mermigas writes:

... The fact that media deals are being proposed on the basis of new expectations in an evolving digital broadband marketplace, using more traditional, older metrics, could cause some problems in the interim. ...

... To be sure, price and terms always will be at the heart of all mergers and acquisitions. But determining price and terms isn't what it used to be in a media world in which the business of entertaining, informing and communicating is being redefined. Media deals today have the potential to set new operating and investment precedent as billions of dollars in shifting valuations, revenue and profit are on the table in a high-stakes game involving founding old-media executives, high-tech industry newcomers and an intriguing array of investors.  ¶  This certainly is true of the proposed $5 billion XM and Sirius Satellite Radio merger of so-called equals, which is challenging government regulators, shareholders and the media marketplace with the notion that changing competition, technology and economics justify the creation of a single, dominant media category provider.  ¶  Supporters of the deal argue that hardly seems a threat when one considers the alternative ways for securing free-flowing music of choice, including streaming music on the Internet and music downloads to numerous devices. ...

Link:  Mermigas on Media in Hollywood Reporter.

How Radio Listeners Will Fare in a Merger of Sirius and XM

"Compared with commercial radio, a merged XM and Sirius would look like Florence in the Renaissance." 

The quote is from a pr0-merger Lee Gomes column in the  Wall Street Journal.  --Dennis

Can Video Help Save the Satellite Radio Business?

Ian Austen writes:

... Although XM and Sirius offer radio, in theory, the systems could be adapted to distribute any kind of data. And, indeed, both companies have made limited steps in that direction. Subscribers can already choose to have selected stock quotes, as well as news and sports headlines, beamed to the tiny screens on their receivers.  ¶  Both companies beam weather data to aviators and boaters through services that cost upwards of $50 a month. Later this year, XM will extend that by beaming weather information to a hand-held unit for hikers and hunters.  ¶  But Sirius has also made tentative steps toward offering video. At trade shows, Sirius has displayed prototype systems for sending video to back-seat displays like those now used by in-car DVD players. And the company recently, if vaguely, outlined plans to deliver some form of video programming aimed at children later this year. ...

Link:  New York Times.

Digital Media Growth Projections - Bridge Ratings

Bridge Ratings is out with another update (19 Feb. 2007) of their projections on digital audio growth.  I've linked to earlier updates before and have found them very useful.  Note the tallest bars (red), which are terrestrial analog radio, and the next tallest bars (white), which are Internet radio.  Much more information in the release.

Click for larger image.

A related report is the 2007 Competitive Media Usage Overview based on a 3,500-person 12+ national survey.  Check out the comparative weekly TSL chart.

Other recent studies include In-Car Media Use, which shows that other in-car media -- especially cell phone usage -- have been eating into  TSL to radio since 2003.

It has also issued its 2007 Projections & Predictions,  which contains the following:

• Traditional media companies will continue to struggle to maintain their audiences.
• TVs, computers and other digital devices will begin to morph.
• Technology will make it easier to find, access and manage content.
• Digital video will drive the growth of on-line advertising.
• Advertising in digital venues will become more contextual.
• Small-screen devices will have limited appeal as a media platform.
• Marketers will make some mistakes as they move into new digital spaces.

A couple of those seem pretty obvious, but this is a quite helpful report.

There's also a new update on satellite radio.  --Dennis

XM & Sirius: What A Merger Won't Fix

From an unsigned article:

Sure, XM ... and Sirius ... would wring out plenty of cost savings as one company. But the two have yet to earn a penny of profit. Their combined losses for 2006 are expected to hit $1.7 billion. And competition is everywhere. Car salesmen are pushing new iPod jacks. More than 57 million Americans now listen to some form of Web radio each week, says radio-audience tracker Bridge Ratings, compared with 14 million subscribers for XM and Sirius combined. Broadcasters are beginning to offer high definition, or HD, radio. While consumers need to buy a special receiver to get HD, which squeezes more programming into the same frequency, the service is free.  ¶  Meanwhile, 240 million folks listen to regular radio at least once a week. And who knows what's around the corner?  Maybe a form of WiMAX will be capable of streaming Web radio to a speeding car. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.  Maybe a form of WiMAX?  Not maybe -- it's here. 

Also see Olga Kharif's Satellite Static: The XM-Sirius Merger.  Link:  BusinessWeek.  --Dennis

Merger Would End Satellite Radio's Rivalry

Lot's of stories today on the proposed merger between Sirius and XM.  Here's one by Richard Siklos and Andrew Ross Sorkin.  They write:

... Questioned last month about a possible Sirius-XM merger, the F.C.C. chairman, Kevin J. Martin, initially appeared to be skeptical, but later said that if such a deal were proposed, the agency would consider it.  ¶  In a statement yesterday, Mr. Martin acknowledged that the F.C.C. rule could complicate a merger but said the commission would evaluate the proposal. “The hurdle here, however, would be high,” he said. ...

Link:  New York Times. 

Doc Searls points out some other difficulties: antitrust, program quality, monoculture, obsolescence, costs and revenues.  Link:  Doc Searls Weblog.  Thanks to Rob Paterson for the tip.  --Dennis