Technology360

Digital Media Growth Projections - Bridge Ratings

Bridge Ratings is out with another update (19 Feb. 2007) of their projections on digital audio growth.  I've linked to earlier updates before and have found them very useful.  Note the tallest bars (red), which are terrestrial analog radio, and the next tallest bars (white), which are Internet radio.  Much more information in the release.

Click for larger image.

A related report is the 2007 Competitive Media Usage Overview based on a 3,500-person 12+ national survey.  Check out the comparative weekly TSL chart.

Other recent studies include In-Car Media Use, which shows that other in-car media -- especially cell phone usage -- have been eating into  TSL to radio since 2003.

It has also issued its 2007 Projections & Predictions,  which contains the following:

• Traditional media companies will continue to struggle to maintain their audiences.
• TVs, computers and other digital devices will begin to morph.
• Technology will make it easier to find, access and manage content.
• Digital video will drive the growth of on-line advertising.
• Advertising in digital venues will become more contextual.
• Small-screen devices will have limited appeal as a media platform.
• Marketers will make some mistakes as they move into new digital spaces.

A couple of those seem pretty obvious, but this is a quite helpful report.

There's also a new update on satellite radio.  --Dennis

XM & Sirius: What A Merger Won't Fix

From an unsigned article:

Sure, XM ... and Sirius ... would wring out plenty of cost savings as one company. But the two have yet to earn a penny of profit. Their combined losses for 2006 are expected to hit $1.7 billion. And competition is everywhere. Car salesmen are pushing new iPod jacks. More than 57 million Americans now listen to some form of Web radio each week, says radio-audience tracker Bridge Ratings, compared with 14 million subscribers for XM and Sirius combined. Broadcasters are beginning to offer high definition, or HD, radio. While consumers need to buy a special receiver to get HD, which squeezes more programming into the same frequency, the service is free.  ¶  Meanwhile, 240 million folks listen to regular radio at least once a week. And who knows what's around the corner?  Maybe a form of WiMAX will be capable of streaming Web radio to a speeding car. ...

Link:  BusinessWeek.  Maybe a form of WiMAX?  Not maybe -- it's here. 

Also see Olga Kharif's Satellite Static: The XM-Sirius Merger.  Link:  BusinessWeek.  --Dennis

Merger Would End Satellite Radio's Rivalry

Lot's of stories today on the proposed merger between Sirius and XM.  Here's one by Richard Siklos and Andrew Ross Sorkin.  They write:

... Questioned last month about a possible Sirius-XM merger, the F.C.C. chairman, Kevin J. Martin, initially appeared to be skeptical, but later said that if such a deal were proposed, the agency would consider it.  ¶  In a statement yesterday, Mr. Martin acknowledged that the F.C.C. rule could complicate a merger but said the commission would evaluate the proposal. “The hurdle here, however, would be high,” he said. ...

Link:  New York Times. 

Doc Searls points out some other difficulties: antitrust, program quality, monoculture, obsolescence, costs and revenues.  Link:  Doc Searls Weblog.  Thanks to Rob Paterson for the tip.  --Dennis

Recyled satellite radio planned

Satellites used for relaying television signals operate from fixed orbital slots which enable them to be used by inexpensive fixed receive antennas.  They have small rockets on board that are fired periodically to keep them in one slot and after the on board fuel runs out after 10-15 years the satellites are retired and drift off position, even though technically they are still able to transmit signals.  The European Space Agency has developed a system to track these wandering retirees and permit them to transmit audio and other multimedia to mobile receivers on the ground.  Fascinating.  Link:  BBC News.  --Dennis

The Radio Gypsy's Predictions for 2007

Mark Ramsey has 13 predictions for radio this year.  Good reading.  Link:  Hear 2.0.  --Dennis

What the Satellite Radio Christmas Season means for you

Interesting piece on satellite radio by Mark Ramsey in which, among other things, he quotes Radio Business Report quoting a Bank of America analyst quoting NPD Group data as saying "... that retail sales of satellite radio receivers were down 46% year-over-year in December ..." (Sirius down 40%, XM down 55%).  Read the rest at Hear 2.0.  --Dennis

HD Radio at CES and Products You'll See Later This Year

Leslie Stimson has this report at Radio World.  Also see the satellite radio notes at the end of the article. 

Update 22 Jan. 2007:
Here's more information from NAB RadioTechCheck [pdf].  --Dennis

Satellite radio and digital television

The February issue of Scientific American has a worthy pair of articles of interest to broadcasters, especially to those who don't want to admit to their chief engineers that they don't know this stuff already.  The links which follow provide only a tease, so you either need to purchase rights or buy the magazine.  The first is a short article by Mark Fischetti called Song Beams that does a particularly good job explaining the urban repeaters for Sirius and XM.  The second is a more complete article by Michael Antonoff called Digital TV At Last? which, not surprisingly, is about the transition from analog to digital television broadcasting.

I've been reading (or trying to read) this magazine for 40 years and it's been a great education.  But they sure have antediluvian ideas about DRM and linking.  --Dennis

Measuring Satellite Radio's Impact

Fred Jacobs links to a fascinating study by Katz Radio of satellite radio penetration in major markets.  The study concludes that, on the average, Sirius and XM combined would rank #22.  Link: JacoBlog.

Did you hear what Howard said this morning?

Fred Jacobs writes:

... The fact is that as good as Howard is, environment plays a role in his success.  And with Sirius, his landscape has changed.  He isn't attached to a real radio outlet, his reach has been greatly diminished, and with it, his influence. ...

... 2006 is a very flat to down year for Stern, with none of those telltale "peaks" back in the old, terrestrial radio days.  ¶  We used to see the impact of environment on Stern from radio station to radio station, and market to market.  When he was on a great station with a real format, he tended to have blockbuster numbers.  When he was on a dog station that played music that was much-duplicated in the market, or just not very good, his ratings seriously lagged.  Despite the fact that it was the same show all over the U.S., the Arbitron numbers were far different, depending on the situation.  You can look it up. ...

Link:  JacoBLOG. 

Farting in church department:  Among my responsibilities is a network of 13 public radio stations, so it's been a minor annoyance to have National Public Radio's programming carried on Sirius along with Howard Stern.  Although not alone, sadly, he's IMHO debased the radio neighborhood for years with (uh, searching mightily for the least offensive term) ... juvenilia.   NPR has been running noncommercial promos for Sirius that we carry by contract, and recently they've included something like, "... where you can hear Howard Stern."  So now my stations are telling people there's a strip club in the neighborhood.  Wouldn't it be more effective for Sirius to tell NPR listeners that they can find NPR there?  --Dennis